*CBB(1u): Rhode Island/VCU UNDER 122.5(-110)–6 PM CT
This total might seem ridiculously low, but when you actually break down how these teams match up, you realize that it’s not low enough. VCU has a top 5 defense in the country and will face a Rhode Island offense that ranks just 239th in offensive efficiency. In their past 2 road games, URI put up just 51 at Dayton and then 55 at Fordham. With that said, the Rams play very solid defense themselves, ranking right around 40th in defensive efficiency. VCU has one of the worst offenses I’ve seen in a long time, ranking 309th in offensive efficiency. It can’t be said enough how poor that really is. As a kicker, neither team likes to push the pace, with URI ranking just 240th in tempo this season. Plays like this can be hard to make, but I have no doubt that the Under is the right look in this one.
*NBA(1u): Nets 1H TT UNDER 49.5(-115) vs Celtics–6:30 PM CT
Brooklyn returns home from a 5 game road trip that saw them lose all 5 of those games with an average margin of defeat at 13.6 PPG. In fact, the Nets have now dropped 8 straight games and will be without Kyrie Irving, James Harden, and Kevin Durant for tonight’s matchup. I like the Celtics to win(as you’ll see below), but without any of Brooklyn’s stars in the mix, I just don’t see where consistent points come from in this one. Boston ranks 2nd in defensive efficiency over the course of this season and are playing the best defense in the league by a wide margin over their past 3 games. Given that Brooklyn knocked them out of the playoffs last year, I suspect they’ll show no mercy on that end of the floor. I’ll play the 1H team total to avoid any garbage time, backdoor effort from the Nets.
*CBB(1u): Villanova -4(-110) @ St John’s–7:30 PM CT
Both teams enter this game with some major injury questions. Villanova’s top 2 scorers are both game-time decisions, as is St John’s’ do-it-all PG Posh Alexander. Even if every injury misfortune goes against us, I have no problem grabbing Villanova at this price. St John’s is a streaky team that the market seems to be high on due to their fast pace of play, but their only impressive conference win this season was @ Seton Hall, who was without their catalyst in Brady Aiken. Villanova is a solidified Top 10 team that ranks in the Top 5 in offensive efficiency and plays very good defense as well. They just won by double digits against a really good UCONN team at home and will be unfazed playing in Madison Square Garden, which produces little home court advantage for the Johnnies. St. John’s would have to play their best basketball of the season for them to compete in this one, and I just don’t see that happening. I’ll play against the injury overreaction and back a legitimate Final Four contender laying a short number on the road.
*ML Parlay(1u): Celtics, Nuggets, Vanderbilt(+106)–must be placed by 6:30 PM CT
The Celtics explanation is pretty self-explanatory given how I broke the game down above.
Denver is fresh off a 20 point win against the Nets on Sunday and will host a Knicks team that is playing in the worst of spots possible. This will be the 3rd game in 4 nights for New York, all of which have come on the road. They played in Utah last night and now have to travel to another high altitude spot with no rest. Adding insult to injury, there is a lot of turmoil around the Knicks organization right now(as there has been all season) with Tom Thibodeaux STILL struggling to put together a consistent rotation and publicly disagreeing with front office moves. Given the horrible spot for the Knicks, I don’t see the Nuggets having much trouble winning this one.
Vanderbilt hosts a Missouri team that is coming off an impressive road win at Texas A&M. I like playing against teams playing their second straight road game, and that’s even more true when that team is not used to winning. Vanderbilt is playing pretty good basketball right now and is fresh off a 9 home win vs LSU. The Commodores defense has been solid all season, but the offense appears to be turning a corner after putting up 75 on one of the top defenses in the country. Vandy should win this one comfortably.
