*NBA(1u): Bucks/Suns UNDER 233.5(-110)–9 PM CT
This is the first time these teams have met this season after facing off in the NBA Finals last year. Phoenix(44-10) has every quality of a team you want to be betting on consistently, but the Bucks have won each of their last 4 games and obviously had the Suns’ number in last year’s Finals. I think you can make a really good case for either side here, but regardless, this is going to have a playoff type of feel to it. When you combine that with how these teams match up, this total seems far too high. While each offense ranks in the top 5 in offensive efficiency, each team plays very solid defense as well; you’re essentially getting two teams who match up quite evenly. Unlike most teams, the Suns have the physicality in the paint, led by DeAndre Ayton, to combat Giannis. While neither team runs at a “slow” pace, I don’t expect the tempo of this game to be lightning quick either. I think each of these teams bring their “A” game tonight, causing this Grade A matchup to stay under this high total.
*ML Parlay(1u): Grizzlies 1H ML, Mavericks ML, Duke ML(+130)–6:10 PM CT
See Grizzlies explanation below. If I’m willing to lay 7 with them in the 1st Half, I’m sure that they’ll take a lead into the break.
The Mavericks will host a Clippers squad that is still short-handed with Paul George and Kawhi Leonard out. While the Clippers have played admirably at times in the absence of their stars, this team is a shell of what it is with those guys in the lineup. LAC has had a tough time stepping up in competition as of late; they lost by 24 at home to Milwaukee on Sunday and then by 26 on the road in Memphis on Tuesday. The Mavs, on the other hand, have won 3 straight and are playing the 5th game of a 6 game home stand; Dallas hasn’t played a back-to-back in almost 2 weeks. Not only that, but they still have revenge on their minds after being knocked out of the playoffs by LAC last year. Mavs -6.5 just missed my card, but in what should be a very low-variance game, I feel confident in Dallas winning tonight.
As I expected, Duke laid an egg on Monday against Virginia after demolishing North Carolina last Saturday. Duke had that game locked up before totally crumbling in the final minutes. To be honest, because they ended up losing that game, I like them even more tonight. This Blue Devils squad has what it takes on both ends of the floor to make a deep tournament run in Coach K’s final season, and they’ve responded well off of let down performances this season. Clemson is a team that finds itself out of tournament contention, which is quite a statement considering how down the ACC is this year. The Tigers rank outside the Top 100 in defensive efficiency, and quite frankly, I have a hard time understanding how they rank as high as 50th in offensive efficiency. This is a prime bounce-back spot for Duke; while I’m not quite willing to lay 6.5 with them on the road in this spot, I think they show out well tonight and win this one.
