*NBA(1u): Mavericks/Heat UNDER 209(-110)–6:30 PM CT
This game features two Top 5 defenses in the league, and each are in great current form entering tonight’s game. In addition, Miami ranks 26th in pace this season, while the Mavericks rank dead last. While each offense has had marginal success lately, neither of these teams have played a playoff team in over a week. Dallas is without a volume 3-point shooter in Tim Hardaway Jr, while the Heat are without a similar scoring threat in Tyler Herro. This game is going to have a playoff-type of feel to it between two evenly-matched teams; I don’t think this total does justice to how much of a defensive battle this is going to be. I think the first to 100 points wins here, and this total might not even reach 200.
*CBB(1u): Villanova/Providence UNDER 132(-110)–7 PM CT
Providence has climbed up to #8 in the AP Poll, much to the chagrin of many of the analytics gurus who think Providence is the luckiest team in the country. There’s a reason why Villanova is 4.5 point road favorites in a Top 10 matchup. However, rather than looking at a side here, I’ll take a look towards this Under. While Villanova’s offense is very efficient, the Wildcats run at one of the slowest paces in the country(#351 in pace). The crowd at Dunkin Donuts Center is going to be ruckus, and with one of the better defenses in the Big East, I think there’s a clear path for Providence to get consistent stops tonight. The Friars also run at a very slow pace but don’t have quite the level of efficiency on the offensive end of the floor that Villanova does. Villanova ranks 25th in defensive efficiency. Given the magnitude and implications of this game, there aren’t going to be free points found anywhere near Providence tonight. The Wildcats should pull this one out, but the pace of each team combined with the environment leads me towards playing this Under.
