Happy Presidents Day everyone! We only have a few games happening, with the first matchup starting at 1:00 PM ET. I’ll breakdown that matchup between the Avalanche and Bruins and offer a few other plays on the day.
Colorado Avalanche @ Boston Bruins
- Time: 1:00 PM ET
- TV Coverage: ESPN
- Colorado Avalanche: 36-9-4, 1st Central (15-6-2 Away)
- Boston Bruins: 28-17-4, 4th Atlantic (15-10-1 Home)
| Team | Opening ML | Current ML | Spread | Total |
| Colorado Avalanche | -154 | -165 | -1.5 (+145) | o6.0 (-110) |
| Boston Bruins | +152 | +140 | +1.5 (-175) | u6.0 (-110) |
Trends:
- Avalanche are 7-0 in their last 7 road games.
- Under is 6-1 in Avalanche last 7 overall.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston’s last 5 games.
- Boston are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games.
Previous Matchups:
- January 26, 2022: Boston 3 @ Colorado 4 OT
- BOS (+166), COL (-186), O/U 6.5 (-110/-110)
- In this matchup Boston finished with 4.95 xGF compared to Colorado’s 3.55. Linus Ullmark had a -0.45 GSAx while Darcy Kuemper had a +1.85 GSAx.
Preview:
Colorado Avalanche
The Avalanche have started off their four game road trip hot, winning their first two games. They defeated the Golden Knights 2-0 on Wednesday, then took down the Sabres 5-3 on Saturday. They’ll take on the Bruins today before heading to Detroit to face the Red Wings on Wednesday. Colorado is 8-1-1 in their last 10 and continue to increase the gap between them and the Blues in the Central Division.
Colorado ranks 2nd in terms of Goals For per game averaging 3.98. In their Last 10 they’ve been averaging 3.30 Goals For per game. They’ve faced some solid defense teams during that stretch but have had a relatively full lineup which is some what concerning. I understand every team goes through up and down stretches and I’m sure the Av’s will figure things out given the talent on their roster. During that stretch they’ve averaged roughly the same amount of Shots on Goal For per game, around 35, so again, I’m not so much worried about them finding their scoring tough. Even with their inability to capitalize on chances as of late, they still have the 3rd best Shooting % in the NHL. Their Power Play ranks 10th, converting at a rate of 23.7%.
If you’re looking to target some player props, I would start with Cale Makar who’s on a four game point streak tallying 6 assists during that stretch. Nathan MacKinnon is also on a four game point streak with two goals and two assists.
Defensively, Colorado has been much better in their last 10 with a Goals Against Average of 1.90 per game in their Last 10. On the season they average 2.8 Goals Against per game which ranks 12th. They allow an average of 30.6 Shots Against but have been averaging slightly below that number in their last 10 (29.60). Their Penalty Kill should have their work cut out for them tonight as they rank 21st and face a Bruins Power Play that ranks 5th. In Colorado’s last 10 games, their Penalty Kill has been much better with a 83.33% success rate.
Darcy Kuemper looks to be the starter tomorrow for Colorado. He currently ranks 8th in the NHL with a +15.2 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). Kuemper has also recorded a shutout in two of his last three starts. He did start in their previous matchup against the Bruins, where he finished with a +1.95 GSAx.
Boston Bruins
The Bruins wrapped up a four game road trip on Saturday against the Ottawa Senators where they won 3-2 in OT thanks to David Pastrnak. Since returning from the All-Star break, Boston has struggled going 2-4. They’ve faced some pretty good teams during that stretch like Carolina and Pittsburgh but have dropped some games to inferior opponents. The Bruins take on the Colorado Avalanche today before starting a six game west coast road trip. It’ll be interesting to see how they fare on that trip giving the inconsistency they’re having as team right now, especially on offense.
On the year Boston ranks 21st in Goal For per game averaging 2.84. However, as I previously mentioned, they’ve been struggling as of late up front and are only averaging 1.80 Goals For in their last 10. They’ve been averaging about 3 shots less per game during that stretch compared to their season average of 35.0. The Bruins Power Play ranks 7th in the NHL converting at a rate of 24.8% but have a 16.67% conversion rate in their last 10. You can see it by the offensive metrics how much the Bruins are struggling offensively. They’ve been without Marchand who will return from his six game suspension on Thursday.
In terms of defense, Boston has also struggled in their last 10 with a 3.00 Goals Against average compared to their season long average of 2.84, ranking 21st. By no means is this a Boston Bruins team of old, that can shut teams down and win low scoring games. They’ve been giving up more shots against as of late which has hurt their young goaltender Swayman. Their Penalty Kill ranks 10th with a 83.3% success rate but, just like the Bruins, hasn’t been as great in their last few games.
Jeremey Swayman is expected to get the start for the Bruins tomorrow. He ranks 12th in terms of GSAx with a +9.7. In his last three games he’s recorded a shutout and has only allowed three goals against.
Pick:
- COLORADO AVALANCHE TEAM TOTAL OVER 3.5 (+110)
- For me, this total is a stay away given how good Colorado’s defense has been and Boston’s lack of production up front recently. The Bruins have been struggling on defense and while Colorado hasn’t been them unusual selves up front, they’ll have plenty of chances today. Boston’s coming off a long road trip and will leave right after for another long road trip. This isn’t a great spot for them at all here. Swayman has been playing pretty well in his last few but hasn’t faced an offense with the firepower that the Avalanche possess.
Other Plays on the Night:
- CAROLINA HURRICANES 60 MINUTE LINE (-135)
- The Hurricanes are coming off a game yesterday, where they upset the Pittsburgh Penguins. Raanta started for them, so Anderson will get the start today. Both goalies have been solid for them this season but Anderson is the clear number 1. Carter Hart is expected to get the start for Philadelphia who’s struggled in his last few starts. They Flyers have struggled defensively in their last 10 and will face a high powered offense in Carolina. While the Hurricanes are averaging less GF in their last 10, their defense should be able to hold the Flyers up front.
Player Props will be added later as they’re released. I will post them on Twitter and on the Blog.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
