Solid start to the week as we go 1-0 cashing on the TOR/WSH Over 6.0. I received a few DM’s after the article was posted notifying me the line on Pointsbet had changed to 6.5, so I apologize if you weren’t able to grab it at 6.0.
We have a great slate of NHL games today. I’ll breakdown the matchup between the red hot Calgary Flames and the Minnesota Wild. In addition to that, I have one other pick which will be at the end of the article. Lets get into it!
Calgary Flames @ Minnesota Wild
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
- TV Coverage: ESPN+
- Calgary Flames: 31-14-6, 1st Pacific (16-10-2 Away)
- Minnesota Wild: 31-16-3, 3rd Central (16-4-1 Home)
| Team | Opening ML | Current ML | Spread | Total |
| Calgary Flames | -105 | -125 | -1.5 (+200) | o6.5 (-105) |
| Minnesota Wild | -120 | +105 | +1.5 (-245) | u6.5 (-115) |
Trends:
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Calgary’s last 8 games.
- Calgary are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota’s last 7 games.
- Minnesota are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games
Previous Matchups:
- February 26, 2022: Minnesota 3 @ Calgary 7
- MIN (+135), CGY (-160), O/U 6.0 (-120/+100)
Preview:
Calgary Flames
The Calgary Flames are the hottest team in the NHL with a 9-1 record in their last 10 games.
Offensively Calgary averages 3.43 Goals For per game on the season, ranking 17th. However, in their last 10 games they’re averaging 4.50 Goals For per game. Despite the major uptick in goals, they’ve actually been averaging less Shots on Goal For in their most recent 10 games when compared to their season average. The Flames have the best xGoal % in the NHL with a 56.73%, which is truly incredible. They’ve been clicking on all cylinders up front lately and haven’t really shown any signs of slowing down. They rank 11th in terms of Power Play Percentage with a 22.3%. In their most recent game, which was against the Wild, they converted at a rate of 40% on the man advantage.
If you’re looking to target some player props tonight, I would start with Elias Lindholm. He’s been incredible lately with 18 points in his last 12 games. Other players to consider targeting for the Flames tonight include Matthew Tkachuk and their leading goal scorer Johnny Gaudreau.
Defensively, the Flames have also been great recently, allowing an average of 2.20 Goals Against per game in their last 10. On the season they rank 2nd in Goals Against per game with an average of 2.43. They do a great job of limiting shots from their opponents and are averaging 28.20 Shots Against per game in their last 10. Their Penalty Kill ranks 6th with a 84.5% success rate. In their last 10 games, they have only allowed three power play goals against in 28 attempts.
Jacob Markstrom is expected to get the start in net tonight for the Minnesota Wild. He’s been great on the season with a +10.7 Goals Saved Above Expected, but struggled in his last two starts. He finished with a .880 SV% against Minnesota in his last start and a .857 SV% in the game prior against Vancouver.
Minnesota Wild
The Minnesota Wild are going through a bit of a rough stretch as of late going 4-6 in their last 10 games. Goaltender Cam Talbot has yet to provide consistency in net for them so they’ve turned to Kappo Kahkonen in their most recent games. They only issue is that he hasn’t been great either. Minnesota returns from a four game road trip to take on a team that they were embarrassed by just three days ago.
On the year the Wild rank 3rd in terms of Goals For per game averaging 3.72. In their last 10 games, that number has dropped a bit to an average of 3.40. They’ve failed to generate a ton of shots in their most recent games and average three less shots on goal for in their last 10 when compared to their season average. If they want to turn things around they need generate more scoring chances as their shooting % has dropped. They only issue is that they face off against the Flames tonight who do a great job of limiting shots. Their Power Play ranks 18th but has failed to score on their last 9 attempts.
Just like their offense, Minnesota’s defense has been sub-par as of late. They’re averaging 3.70 Goals Against in their last 10 games. This is a drastic decline from their season average of 3.08 Goals Against per game. Even with the increase in goals against in their most recent games, they still average around the same number of shots against as their season average (32.60).
It looks like Cam Talbot will get the start in net for Minnesota tonight. His last start was on February 22nd against Ottawa where he allowed 4 goals on 34 shots. In his last three starts, including the game against Ottawa, he has allowed at least 4 goals against in those starts. Talbot has a -1.2 GSAx in 31 games played this year.
Pick:
- MINNESOTA WILD (+105)
- In the NHL it’s very hard to beat a team twice in back to back games. Calgary won handily on Saturday at home, but Minnesota has been much better at home and should rebound here. This is a tough one to predict, but I do like Minnesota in this spot even with how well Calgary has been playing. I also lean the under in this matchup as well but, I didn’t like it enough to put it on the card.
Other Plays on the Night:
- COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS (-120)
- New Jersey is coming off a game last night, where they smoked Vancouver. On the year the Devils are 2-6-2 on no days rest and face off against a Blue Jackets team that’s 7-3 in their last 10.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
