*NBA(1u): Heat -2.5(-110) @ Nets–6:30 PM CT
This is a bad spot for Miami given that they played a down-to-the-wire game in Milwaukee last night and have Philadelphia on deck this Saturday. That being said, this is simply a bad line; without Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant, the Nets deserve to be priced like a lottery team. Jimmy Butler scored just 6 points in last night’s game and went 2-14 from the floor, so you can expect he’ll come out with his hair on fire tonight. While Miami is still without Kyle Lowry and could even rest a key piece tonight, I firmly believe that they have a system in place that works. There are interchangeable pieces on that roster that Erik Spoelstra can use to mix-and-match in games like this. Brooklyn is just 3-15 over their last 18 games and are a total “play against” team for me at the moment. You will see fishy lines like this often in the NBA, and I believe it is my job to sniff out the legitimacy of them. This is a bad line and grossly overestimates the effect of Miami being on a back-to-back as well as the capabilities of this Nets roster. Miami -2.5 is the play.
*CBB(1u): Tulane +1.5(-110) vs UCF–7 PM CT
I price these teams as near equals, so getting 1.5 points with the home team was too good for me to pass up. Tulane is 6-2 straight up and against the spread at home in conference play, while UCF is 2-5 SU and against the spread on the road in conference play. I think many people still view UCF too highly after they entered into this season with high expectations, but it’s past time for people to admit those expectations haven’t been met. This is also a revenge game for Tulane after they lost by 2 at UCF earlier this season. In that game, the Green Wave led by 4 with 2 minutes to play before squandering the lead. I think we get a great showing from the home dog here in a spot that tips the scales in their direction; I’ll take the points with Tulane in a role they’ve performed nicely in.
*ML Parlay(0.8u): Illinois 1H, Kansas 1H, Raptors(+106)–6 PM CT
Illinois has played 7 of their last 8 games against NCAA Tournament teams, so getting Penn State at home should be a nice change of pace for the Illini. Penn State is dreadful offensively, and while they bring a good level of intensity on the defensive end of the floor, they don’t have the Jimmies and Joes to match up well with Illinois. With Iowa on deck, I think Illinois is going to want to get this one over as quickly as possible. I’ll look towards Illinois to take a lead into the Half.
TCU completed a magical 2 game home stretch that saw them take down both Texas Tech and Kansas. Yes, that’s 2 court storms in the span of 4 days. With the Horned Frogs squarely in the tournament now, the urgency could slip a bit in a spot that heavily favors Kansas. The Jayhawks do have a slight look ahead with Texas coming into town on Saturday, but I would imagine Kansas has their way in this one facing off with a clearly inferior team that beat them just 2 days ago. I think Kansas dominates this game in the 1H.
The Raptors are facing off with the lowly Pistons after completing a 2-game sweep of the Nets. Toronto could welcome back Fred VanVleet and OG Anunoby tonight, but even without them, they should have more than enough to take care of the 15-47 Pistons. The Raptors lost by 16 the last time these 2 teams played, so even in a sleepy spot, we should get a good effort from them tonight. This is the last game of a 3 game road trip for Detroit; with a winnable home game on deck against the Pacers tomorrow, we could see them mail this one in the 2H.
