Premiums, 3.4

401

 

Well you already know what I’m going to say.

The Grizzlies/Celtics over couldn’t have been more phony. How many solo layups did the Grizzlies have in that game? Like 10? And these asshole teams scored 72 points in the 4th? Get the fuck out of here!
The Spurs, one of the best offenses recently, completely shitting the bed and allowing the NBA’s worst defense to limit them? Give me a fucking break.
ONTO THE NEXT.
NBA Picks:
  • Cavs 1H +4, 1.5 units
    • We have a few reasons to think the Cavs will cover in this spot. First, the 76ers are feeling fat and sassy right now, as they should. But they face a desperate team today who may easily out-match them in motivation. The Cavs, on the other hand, NEED to get right. Cleveland sits at 6th in the East but they’re bound to lose some ground if they don’t start winning some games. Their remaining schedule is not easy. Darius Garland is back, and the Cavs have lost 5 of their last 6 as they head to Philly. I’ll take them in the 1H since Philly loves to start slow and loves to disappoint at home (12-18 ATS).
  • Jazz -3, 2 units
    • Here’s the thing – I LOVE that New Orleans is getting this kind of respect at home. I said it before it was cool – the Pelicans are a play-on team in the 2nd half of the season, and I like them to eclipse the Lakers for a spot in the playoffs. While all that is true, the Jazz need to get their act together. They barely beat the Rockets the other night and now they go on the road to face a Pelicans team that’s only gained confidence since the All Star break. Winners of 3 straight by margin, the Pelicans are marching into this game expecting to have a chance, and probably expecting to win. Meanwhile the market is treating the Jazz like any other Western contender – a really solid team, but not elite. Normally this line would be -6, -7, -8 even on the road. Don’t believe me? Look at the past lines. Rudy Gobert hasn’t come into his own just yet and the Jazz defense as a whole is due for extreme positive regression. This is a chance to flex against a team that doesn’t have nearly the same depth or experience. Hey Utah- go BE the Jazz and cover this line, as you fucking should.
  • Knicks +7, 1 unit
    • A PRIME spot here for the Knicks. If NYK is going to have a shot in hell in the playoffs, this is a great opportunity to play great against a weaker Suns unit. No Booker and no Paul = a Suns team that loses a tremendous amount of offensive firepower and playmaking ability. Don’t be deterred by Phoenix’s performance against the Blazers- the Blazers may be the WORST team in the NBA without Nurkic. The Suns can afford to lose games, they’re a whole 7 games ahead of the Warriors for 1st place in the West, and they have a big-time lookahead spot against a vengeful Bucks team on Sunday. It’s gross – I hate when I see from the Knicks – but they can have real offensive success against a Suns’ defense that’s regressed without their stars.
CBB Picks:
  • Loyola-Chicago -6, 1 unit
UFC 272 Picks:
  • Devonte Smith (-150), 1.5 units
  • Nurmagoedov wins inside distance (-105), 2 units
  • Maryna Moroz (Ukrainian, enough said, +155), 1 unit
  • Greg Hardy (+165), 1 unit
  • Masvidal by KO (+300), sprinkle
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. -Chris