*CBB(1.5u): La Salle/Duquesne UNDER 134.5(-110)–1 PM CT
Duquesne is averaging just 58 PPG in conference play and is truly one of the worst offenses in the country. La Salle is allowing just 56 PPG over their past 3 games, showing me they’re more than capable of holding the Dukes at bay today. With that said, though, this is still a road conference game for the Explorers, and they are only scoring 55 PPG over their last 3 games. Coming into this one ranking 267th in offensive efficiency, I’m not expecting much on that end of the floor for La Salle. Neither one of these teams like to push the pace, and given Duquesne is at home, they will likely be able to slow this game down to their liking. This total being anywhere in the 130’s is just downright wrong; I will make this today’s best bet.
*CBB(1u): Butler +8.5(-110) vs Villanova–11 AM CT
Villanova is coming off a high-intensity game against Providence in which the Friars once again took them down to the wire. Following Nova’ first matchup with Providence, they followed up by beating Georgetown by a mere 8 points, an 11.5 point miss from the 19.5 point spread. This is a very similar trap spot, with the only difference being that a) This one is on the road, and b) Butler is far superior to Georgetown. I know Villanova pounded these Bulldogs early in the season, but as of late, Butler lost to Providence by just 1 at home, St John’s by 3, and beat Creighton by 17 as well as Marquette by 6. The Bulldogs play a solid brand of defense that should keep them hanging around in this game, while the Villanova defense has slipped 20 spots in my defensive efficiency ratings over the past few weeks. Given that each team moves at one of the slowest paces in the country, I feel great about grabbing nearly double digits with the home ‘dog in what could be a let down spot for Villanova.
*CBB(1u): Miami/Syracuse OVER 151(-110)–Noon PM CT
This total opened in the mid-150’s before plummeting this morning. I really don’t see any substantial reason for that line movement, so given that I leaned towards the Over at the opening number, I will be on it officially with a few points of added value. These are two of the most efficient offenses in CBB in all facets of the game, while each defense ranks 160th or worse in defensive efficiency. Miami is one of the worst rebounding teams in the country, while Syracuse is vulnerable to getting torched in their 2-3 zone against good shooting teams like Miami. This is also Miami’s second straight road game, a spot where defense tends to slip, while Syracuse has nothing to lose at the moment.We saw 175 total points when these teams matched up earlier this season, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they get to that mark again. Over is the play.
*CBB(1u): Creighton PK(-110) vs Seton Hall–1:30 PM CT
Game after game, Creighton continues to be undervalued by the oddsmakers. They beat UCONN outright for the second time this season on Wednesday, and now we’re getting them in a Pick’Em type of spot at home against a very similar quality of team. Seton Hall enters this game off of 4 straight wins, but they played DePaul, Butler, and Georgetown at home, as well as a struggling Xavier team on the road. They won their last game against Georgetown by just 5, and with Bryce Aiken still out, I’m more than willing to play against this overvalued team. This is the Blue Jays’ second straight home game, and with the way they are defending, I’m more than willing to strike while the iron is hot with this Creighton team in a good home spot.
*CBB(1u): Notre Dame-12.5(-110) vs Pittsburgh–1:30 PM CT
Notre Dame inexplicably dropped their last game at Florida State, but this Irish team has been great coming off of losses this season. This team has failed to lose back-to-back games in conference play, and they’ve covered in each of the following bounce-back spots. Notre Dame has all the motivation to come out hot today given a loss to Pittsburgh could possibly drop them out of the tournament. Pittsburgh actually won 3 games a row earlier this month, but they have regressed back to being a bad team over their past 3 games. Coming off a 21 point loss to Miami and 30 point loss to Duke, the 11-19 Panthers very well could have thrown in the towel on this season. In any case, Notre Dame has been good in this role this season, and I think they mop the floor with Pitt this afternoon.
*CBB(1u): Clemson +3(-110) vs Virginia Tech–1 PM CT
I never thought I would be on Clemson at this point in the season, but the Tigers have reeled me in with how they’ve been playing as of late. They enter this game off of 3 straight wins, including an 11 point win over Wake Forest, a team I’m very high on. It would’ve been easy for the Tigers to throw in the towel after a 6 game losing streak, but Clemson is undoubtedly playing their best basketball of the season at the moment. Virginia Tech looks great on paper, but there is a reason the Hokies have lost 11 games this year despite being ranked #28 in KenPom. In their last 3 road games, they squeaked by low-lifes Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh by 4 and 5 points, respectively, and also tabbed a 1 point win @ Miami. Even so, this Hokies team lives and dies by the 3-point ball, and a road loss @ Boston College shows how volatile they can be. This line screams Clemson, the public vs sharp money screams Clemson, and we’ll all be screaming Clemson after this one is over. I think the Tigers win outright, but I will always take 3 points when I can get them.
*CBB(1u): Marquette -4.5(-110) vs St John’s–8 PM CT
Marquette was one of the hottest teams in CBB in the month of January, but the Golden Eagles are just 3-5 SU over their last 8 games. Even so, Marquette is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS coming off a road loss in this 8 game stretch, so this spot sets up similarly as a good “bounce back” opportunity. A spread at 4.5 this game might as well be 2.5 given that the total is 160.5; in other words, with so many points expected on each side, the spread starts to matter less and less given the pace and variance of this game. Marquette’s defense ranks 30 spots higher in defensive efficiency than St John’s’, and their offenses are about equal. St John’s runs at the 2nd fastest pace in the country and can really stack up points, but they have struggled on the road against the better defenses in the Big East. This is the first time these teams have matched up this season, but this matchup feels similar to the way the Johnnies match up with Creighton. When the Johnnies traveled to Nebraska to take on the Blue Jays, they lost that game 87–64. While I’m not expecting as big of a blowout in this one, I do think Marquette has the defensive ability to hold St John’s at bay and then capitalize on the other end of the floor in their home arena. I was expecting a line around 5.5 or 6, and I still would have leaned Marquette at that price. Getting this at 4.5, I feel good about backing the home team in this primetime spot.
