I released my premium card for free last night and was able to go 2-1; I hope some of y’all were able to cash with me. Today, I’m rolling with 7 premium CBB plays, and I have decided to post 2 for free. Overall, premium plays have gone 168-122-1(57.9%) and have netted my members +54u over the past 6 months. Click here to join along as a premium member, and let’s have ourselves a Saturday!
*CBB(1u): Clemson +3(-110) vs Virginia Tech–1 PM CT
I didn’t think I would be on Clemson at this point in the season, but the Tigers have reeled me in with how they’ve been playing as of late. They enter this game off of 3 straight wins, including an 11 point win over Wake Forest, a team I’m very high on. It would’ve been easy for the Tigers to throw in the towel after a 6 game losing streak, but Clemson is undoubtedly playing their best basketball of the season at the moment. Virginia Tech looks great on paper, but there is a reason the Hokies have lost 11 games this year despite being ranked #28 in KenPom. In their last 3 road games, they squeaked by low-lifes Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh by 4 and 5 points, respectively, and also tabbed a 1 point win @ Miami. Even so, this Hokies team lives and dies by the 3-point ball, and a road loss @ Boston College shows how volatile they can be. This line screams Clemson, the public vs sharp money screams Clemson, and we’ll all be screaming Clemson after this one is over. I think the Tigers win outright, but I will always take 3 points when I can get them.
*CBB(1u): Marquette -4.5(-110) vs St John’s–8 PM CT
Marquette was one of the hottest teams in CBB in the month of January, but the Golden Eagles are just 3-5 SU over their last 8 games. Even so, Marquette is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS coming off a road loss in this 8 game stretch, so this spot sets up similarly as a good “bounce back” opportunity. A spread at 4.5 this game might as well be 2.5 given that the total is 160.5; in other words, with so many points expected on each side, the spread starts to matter less and less given the pace and variance of this game. Marquette’s defense ranks 30 spots higher in defensive efficiency than St John’s’, and their offenses are about equal. St John’s runs at the 2nd fastest pace in the country and can really stack up points, but they have struggled on the road against the better defenses in the Big East. This is the first time these teams have matched up this season, but this matchup feels similar to the way the Johnnies match up with Creighton. When the Johnnies traveled to Nebraska to take on the Blue Jays, they lost that game 87–64. While I’m not expecting as big of a blowout in this one, I do think Marquette has the defensive ability to hold St John’s at bay and then capitalize on the other end of the floor in their home arena. I was expecting a line around 5.5 or 6, and I still would have leaned Marquette at that price. Getting this at 4.5, I feel good about backing the home team in this primetime spot.
