It’s the final 7 days of action before Selection Sunday. Limited amount of games on a Monday slate, but I’ve got 2 picks today I am giving out for free. We are on a 40-29-3 Run the last two weeks with a nice 22 unit profit. You can get all my premium plays available here at Theoddsbreakers.com
The first game I am looking at is the CAA semifinal match-up between UNC- Wilmington and College of Charleston. Clash of styles here as Charleston plays at the 2nd fastest pace in the country while UNCW will look to try and slow the game down a bit. UNCW won the first two meetings by slim margins by controlling two things. Getting to the free throw line and turnovers. They forced 35 turnovers in the two games and got the the line 56 times.
Both these teams run guard heavy lineups, but UNCW has a size advantage which helped them get to the line in the first two meetings. Charleston also ranks 317th in the country in fouls which should help drive UNCW to the line again. Another key stat is that even though Charleston will push pace and try and create turnovers UNCW is nearly flawless as they rate 8th in the country in allowing quick points off steals. I like UNCW to complete the sweep of the season series and advance to the finals of the CAA.
UNCW ML 1 Unit, UNCW +2 1 Unit
In my second match-up I am looking to the battle of South Dakota in Sioux Falls as The South Dakota Coyotes take on the South Dakota State Jackrabbits for a spot in The Summit League Tournament Finals.
South Dakota State swept the first two meetings by scores of 84-65 at home and 89-79 on the road. This is another clash of styles as South Dakota State will look to get out and run, while South Dakota will hope to turn this into a slower paced battle. The problem for the Coyotes is that SDSU is the 14th most efficient offense in all of college basketball while they rank in the bottom third of teams in defensive efficiency. The Jackrabbits shot 56.6% in game 1 including 55.6% from 3 and shot 16 Free throws. In game 2 they were 60% from the field and 44% from 3, and got to the line 30 times.
I am looking at the team total for South Dakota State here. They have won 19 straight games and The total currently sits at 80.5. In Summit League play South Dakota State has only been held under that total 4 times. Twice they landed on 80 and once at 79. The other was a 70 point effort against North Dakota where they were held to 30% shooting in the first half. They bounced back to score 40 in the second half and win the game. In all four of those games they shot over 5% lower than they’re season average 6th best in the country FG% of 49.97. They are also number 1 in the country by the way from 3 pt range at 42.01%. In the first match-up against South Dakota the Jackrabbits put up 84, and called off the hounds scoring only 4 points in the last 5 minutes. Barring some sort of epic shooting collapse tonight I see the Jackrabbits having no issue going over the total against the Coyotes.
I’m on the Jackrabbits Team Total Over 80.5 2.5 Units
