What a Sunday Monday finish at THE PLAYERS Championship. Cam Smith at 35-1 wins it shooting a 66 on the final round to narrowly edge out Anirban Lahiri. With that victory, Cam Smith took home the $3.6 million dollar prize in addition to a three year exemption to the majors and a five-year exemption on the PGA Tour. That was his second win of the year as he won the Sentry Tournament of Champions back in January.
Betting wise we struggled last week as none of our outrights or top 20 hit but, we did manage to cash on Sergio Top 40. Over the past six weeks we are still up +24.52 Units.
The PGA stays in Florida for one last event before heading to Texas. The Valspar Championship takes place this week at Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor Florida. The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook is interesting as it doesn’t necessarily play like a typical Florida type course. It features a lot of elevation changes and tree lined fairways which is something you don’t see to often in the Sunshine state. We still have a decent field this week with five of the Top 10 golfers in the world participating. This weeks event will obviously take a backseat to March Madness starting. Let’s get into this weeks event and find some winners.
Tournament Information:
- Dates: March 17th, 2022- March 20th, 2022
- Location: Palm Harbor, Florida, United States
- Course: Innisbrook Resort – Copperhead Course
- Course Type: Carolina-type
- Par: 71 (5x 3’s / 9x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
- Length: 7,340 yards
- Format: 72 hole stroke play
- Field/ Cut: 144 Players | Top 65 and Ties after 36 Holes
- Greens: TifEagle Bermudagrass with Poa Trivialis overseed
- Fairways: Celebration Bermudagrass
- Rough: Celebration Bermudagrass with Ryegrass 3″
- Stimpmeter: 12.0 ft. (Average)
- Purse: $7,800,000 / Winner $1.404 Million
- FedEx Cup Points: 500
- Bunkers: 74
- Water Hazards: 8 (In-Play on 9 Holes)
- Average Green Size: 5,822 sq. ft.
- Scoring Average:
- 2021: 70.96 (-0.04), Rank 20 of 51
- 2019: 71.98 (+0.98), Rank 6 of 49
- 2018: 71.97 (+0.97), Rank 6 of 51
- Historic Cut Lines:
- 2021: -1
- 2019: +1
- 2018: +3
Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:
- Course Architect: Larry Packard (1971)
- Renovations: Wadsworth Golf Construction Company (2005)
- Comparable Courses:
- Round 1: Thursday, March 17th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
- Round 2: Friday, March 17th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
- Round 3: Saturday, March 19th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET
- NBC – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
- Round 4: Sunday, March 20th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET
- NBC – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
- Thursday: Sunny 66 F, 7 mp/h W, 70% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
- Friday: Partly Cloudy 74 F, 7 mp/h S, 70% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
- Saturday: Scattered Thunderstorms 70 F, 11 mp/h WSW, 78% Humidity, 40% Chance of Rain
- Sunday: Partly Cloudy 66 F, 10 mp/h N, 70% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain
Course/ Tournament History:
In 2020 along with several other tournaments, this event was not held due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. However, it returned last year in April where Sam Burns captured his first win on the PGA Tour.
Innisbrook Resort has four courses; Copperhead, North, South, and Island. The Valspar Championship takes place on the Copperhead Course which was the second course built at Innisbrook. It’s the longest course at the resort and the most difficult by far.
The 2015 renovation was overseen by the Wadsworth Golf Construction Company who was the part of the original design. The greens were reseeded with TifEagle Bermuda Grass with a few being restored to their original size allowing for more pin placements. The fairways were replaced with Celebration Bermuda grass to provide a much more consistent hitting surface. In addition to the surface changes, most bunkers were reshaped. The tee boxes were also reshaped and expanded as well.
This is one of the newer events on Tour making it’s debut in 2000. It was originally known as the Tampa Bay Classic and was an alternate event that took place in autumn and late summer. From 2003 to 2006 this tournament was held in autumn before moving to March in 2007. During that stretch of time, it was known as the Chrysler Championship. In addition to the schedule change in 2007, a new sponsor also took over. From 2007 to 2008 it was the PODS Championship. This tournament has struggled holding down a permeant sponsor but in 2014 the Valspar Corporation took over and have been the presenting sponsor since then.
Multiple players have won this event twice including K.J. Choi (2002,2006), Retief Goosen (2003,2009), and most recently Paul Casey (2018,2019). Vijay Singh holds the course record shooting an 18 under par when he won the event back in 2004.
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Just like we’ve seen in the past few weeks with PGA National, TPC Sawgrass, and Bay Hill, this is one of the tougher courses on Tour. Last year, only six holes played under par which included the four Par 5’s. The only other holes that played under par were Hole No. 2 and Hole No. 12.
The Copperhead course at Innisbrook isn’t your typical Florida course. It features a lot of elevation changes and treelined fairways. Most tee shots can very intimidating shot strokes driving accuracy is going to be something to look at this week. Many players will not play driver on most holes as it has the fifth lowest average driving distance on the PGA Tour. Last year we saw six of the top twelve guys lose strokes off the tee so while it’s important, it’s not necessarily the key path to victory. Sam Burns key to victory last year was through his approach play and putting. This course is built for ball strikers and when looking at the field some popular plays are going to be Sam Burns, Viktor Hovland, Abraham Ancer, Joaquin Niemann etc. They all have a pretty good course history as well. One player to watch out for is Justin Thomas. If he can figure out his putting stroke, he should run away with this event, but that’s a massive if.
There’s five Par 3’s on the course with four of the five measuring over 200 yards in length. The toughest Par 3 on the course is Hole No. 15 that played just 0.047 strokes under par last year. The easiest Par 3 at Innisbrook is Hole No. 13 that played 0.2 strokes under past in 2021.
The four Par 5’s are some of the longest on Tour with the shortest playing 560 yards and the longest playing 605 yards. Out of all of the Par 5’s, Hole No. 1 is the shortest measuring 560 yards while Hole No. 5 is the longest playing 605 yards.
The majority of the Par 4’s play between 400-450 yards. The shortest Par 4 at Innisbrook is Hole No. 12 which is only 380 yards but played 0.051 strokes over par last year. The longest Par 4 is Hole No. 16 which is plays 475 yards and is the start of “The Snake Pit.” The most famous stretch of holes here is “The Snake Pit” which is Holes 16 through 18.
Hole No. 16: ‘Moccasin’, is one of the toughest scoring Holes on the PGA Tour. Players will tee off with water in play all along the right side of the fairway with trees bordering the fairway on the left. It’s a very narrow fairway so most will look to try and play a controlled fade here. The green is surrounded by bunkers on the left and right side so a great drive is key here to allow players an easier approach shot.
Hole No. 17: ‘The Rattler’, is a Par 3, that plays 215 yards, the tied for the longest Par 3 on the course with Hole No. 15. If players some how hit it short and right, the water is in play but it’s not the main concern here. The green is very narrow with bunkers and trees protecting it on every side.
Hole No. 18: ‘The Copperhead’, is relatively short distance wise only playing 445 yards. It features a narrow fairway that’s lined with bunkers and trees. Just like the fairways, the green is surrounded by bunkers.
To see the hole by hole strokes average last year, you can click the following link.
For a hole by hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
- Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around the Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards
- Par 5 Scoring: 450-500 Yards
- Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards
- Scrambling
The Field/ Odds:
No Rahm this week so Justin Thomas leads the field in terms of odds. He’s currently around 11-1 on most books followed by Viktor Hovland and Collin Morikawa both listed at 12-1. It’s a pretty top heavy field with Dustin Johnson rounding out the group of players listed 20-1 or under. None of these guys have won this event before with the best finish going to Viktor Hovland who finished 3rd at Innisbrook last year. While this event does usually favor elite ball-strikers, it’ll be interesting to see if any of them can get hot putting which they all usually struggle with. If any of them do have a solid week on the green they should run away with this event. I didn’t play any of the favorites this week but if you’re looking to take one I would pick Viktor Hovland.
Previous winners in the field include Sam Burns (2021), Paul Casey (2019,2018), Adam Hadwin (2017), Charles Schwartzel (2016), Kevin Streelman (2013), Luke Donald (2012), and Gary Woodland (2011).
To see the most up to date odds, you can click the following link.
To find out how everyone in the field has qualified, you can click the following link.
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
- 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
- Price: 100-1
- 2020: Cancelled after the first round due to the COVID-19 pandemic
- Price: N/A
- 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
- Price: 25-1
- 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
- Price: 25-1
- 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
- Price: 125-1
Picks (Outright):
- Matthew Fitzpatrick (+2500) – BetMGM
- Risk 0.32 to win 8.00 Units
- Abraham Ancer (+3400) – FanDuel
- Risk 0.24 to win 8.16 Units
- Jason Kokrak (+3600) – FanDuel
- Risk 0.23 to win 8.28 Units
- Adam Hadwin (+6000) – Pointsbet
- Risk 0.23 to win 8.28 Units
- Mito Pereira (+12000) – FanDuel
- Risk 0.07 to win 8.40 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.00 Units
Picks (Top 20):
- Russell Knox (+275) – DraftKings
- Risk 0.50 to win 1.38 Units
Knox is one of the most accurate drivers on Tour ranking 10th. He’s also a great iron player ranking 8th in Strokes Gained approach. Knox should be able to set himself up nicely off the tee and use his irons to his advantage this week. His putting is always a concern but he has gained strokes putting in two of his last four tournaments. Hopefully the flat stick comes to play this week.
- Kevin Kisner (+300) – FanDuel
- Risk 0.50 to win 1.50 Units
Just like Knox, Kisner is one of the most accurate players off the tee. He’s struggled with this approach game this year but finished still managed to finish 4th last week despite losing strokes on his approach game. Kisner is one of the best putters on Tour and last year we saw Sam Burns putting propel him to a victory here at Innisbrook. I’m not sure Kisner can win this thing but I do like him to finish close to the top of the leaderboard especially given his form.
Total Risk on Top 20: 1.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
- Bubba Watson (+115) – FanDuel
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.15 Units
Bubba’s currently -125 on DraftKings so this is a value bet. He’s finished 4th and 13th here in his last two appearances at Innisbrook. Compared to the field since 2016, he ranks 7th in SG- ATG, 7th in SG- T2G, and 5th in SG-OTT. His course history is impeccable here so given the plus money at a Top 40 finish, I’ll take that everyday.
- Alex Noren (+115) – FanDuel
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.15 Units
Just like Bubba, Noren is currently -125 on DraftKings for a Top 40 finish. While he does struggle off the tee, he ranks 39th in strokes gained approach and 57th in strokes gained putting, two crucial stats. He’s finished inside the Top 40 in four of his past five tournaments and finished 21st last year in this event.
Total Risk on Top 40: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on the Valspar Championship: 4.00 Units
SG Data at the Valspar Championship since 2016: Source
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
