Tuesday (play in games)
Texas A&M CC vs Texas Southern -3.5 O/U 136
Texas A&M CC does very well away from home ranking 11h in the nation on Haslametrics to Sothern’s 211th. Let’s face it, both teams are bad at shooting but both teams play pretty fast with Corpus Christi ranking 29th in average possession length and Texas Southern ranking 148th. The Islanders haven’t scored below 65 points since February 24th and before that was January 20th. They average 73.8 points per game while the Tigers average 69.2. Both teams are sloppy and turn the ball over often. My number is Texas Southern -5 and my total is 142 so I will play the over.
Over 136 – 2 stars
Indiana vs Wyoming +4 O/U 132
Indiana made a very nice run in the Big 10 tournament, but I will say that the Big 10 tournament really sucked this year and most of the teams laid eggs. Both teams rank in the low 200s away from home. Indiana will have a 2 point home court advantage in Dayton being so close to home. Indiana should dominate this game inside with their size and Trace Jackson-Davis being the stud that he is. Indiana -4.5 is my number and the total is about right.
Lean Indiana -4
Thursday
Michigan vs Colorado State +2.5 O/U 139
Well, Michigan got in and that’s all that matters because it’s all about the line here. The Wolverine’s should have a home field advantage here of -1 or so. Michigan has not been great away from home ranking 253rd to Colorado State at 64th. Let’s face it, the big 10 is a much harder conference than the Mountain west and we have to factor that in. Michigan has been pretty inconsistent this year but Colorado State hasn’t done great without their crowd. Both teams should be able to score down low as both defenses are terrible in near proximity but Michigan is the taller teams and should do better. I have Michigan -3 here and I might play them if line gets better.
Lean Michigan -2.5
South Dakota State vs Providence -2 O/U 148.5
This line is just disrespectful to me. Providence is a very solid big East team who has also been lucky, but they are still the second best in the Big East and should be able to dominate the Jackrabbits inside. The Friars have had a much harder schedule than the Jackrabbits and there is no two ways about it. Now South Dakota State is the best 3 point shooting team in the nation. If Providence falls asleep and doesn’t work on the high ball screens on defense, they could get crushed. You have to think that Ed Cooley knows that? It would be a massive coaching blunder if he doesn’t. If it were me coaching, I would allow the ball to go inside much more than allowing them open looks at the perimeter. Providence -3.5 O/U 152 is my number which I think is very fair to South Dakota State playing in such an easy conference. Some of their earlier losses to Idaho and Missouri State are also telling to me. Fade the public perception here.
Providence -2 – 2 stars
