Over the next day, I will be releasing previews of the 8 Opening Round games in the South Region of this year’s NCAA Tournament. Let’s start with the 2 games taking place on Thursday!
Michigan(-2.5) vs Colorado State O/U 139.5–Thursday 11:15 AM CT
Michigan had a turbulent final month of their season, alternating wins and losses over their final 9 games. However, by playing in the toughest conference in the country, the Wolverines are a battle-tested bunch that has had to play the 6th hardest schedule in the country. Colorado State is very similarly rated metrics wise to Michigan, although the Rams are actually slightly more efficient in FG%, 3PT%, FT%, and Assist-Turnover ratio. The one area where the Wolverines hold a sizable advantage is in the rebounding department; Michigan ranks 44th in defensive rebounding %, while the Rams rank in the bottom 30 in offensive rebounding %. This means the Rams can’t afford an off-day in the shooting department as second-chance points are likely to be at a premium for them. Michigan is the much bigger(and taller) team, meaning the Wolverines should have their way in the paint. One big advantage the Rams have is that this team ranks 18th in continuity, meaning their lineup has logged a ton of minutes together; this is a key area that can’t be overlooked at this point in the year. In that same category, Michigan ranks just 246th, and their 296th experience ranking won’t help either. All in all, this is a tough game for me to give a strong opinion on given Michigan’s volatility towards the end of the season. I will add that neither team likes to push the pace, so given what we know about teams struggling to find a rhythm in their first game of the Tournament, perhaps a 1st Half Under is worth a look. If I had to play a side, I’d lean towards Colorado State given their continuity and slightly better offensive metrics. Lean 1H UNDER; Slight Lean Colorado State +2.5.
Tennessee(-17) vs Longwood–1:45 PM CT
Tennessee is on everyone’s radar after running the table in the SEC Tournament and winning 12 of their final 13 games. This Vols team plays an elite brand of defense(#3 in KenPom), but this is also a team that shoots just 43% from the floor and can go into long droughts on that end of the floor. If you’ve followed me, you know I am not a believer in this Tennessee team. As Chris Fillicia(friend of the OddsBreakers) pointed out yesterday, Rick Barnes is just 1-11-1 ATS in his last 13 tournament games. Longwood shoots the 3-ball at the 19th best rate in the country, and despite being one of the smallest teams in the country, they rank in the Top 55 in both offensive and defensive rebounding %. Like many of these smaller conference teams, though, the Lancers played one of the weakest schedules in the country. Their only 2 “big” non-conference games came against Iowa(33 point loss) and Georgetown(8 point loss), so it’s hard to expect them to to step up in competition against what’s still a very good Tennessee team. The Vols are far superior in the interior, so Longwood’s only real shot to hang in this game is to get hot from beyond the arc. While I’m not a believer in Tennessee, they shouldn’t have much trouble winning this game comfortably. No opinion at this point.
