After breaking down the two Thursday games in my last post, let’s look at 3 games in this South Region that will tip off on Friday! I’ll be back later tonight with 3 more game breakdowns in this region that will tip off on Friday night.
Ohio State(PK) vs Loyola Chicago O/U 132.5–Friday 11:15 AM CT
Public sentiment is down on the Buckeyes after they closed out the season losing 4 of their last 5 games. You could think of this as somewhat of a buy low spot, but Loyola Chicago presents a tough matchup for them. The Ramblers rank 22nd overall in defensive efficiency and also sit in the Top 20 in both FG% and 3PT%. Ohio State, on the other hand, has seen their defensive efficiency rating drop all the way below 130th; rarely do teams that defend at that poor of a clip have much success in March. Loyola Chicago is also the more experienced team that is coming off a Sweet 16 appearance last season, while the Buckeyes laid an egg in the first round against Oral Roberts. The one thing that OSU does much better than Loyola is protect the rim, as they average 2.5 more blocks/game than the Ramblers. Ohio State also has really good offensive metrics, played the tougher schedule this season, and has the much more experienced Head Coach. With all that said, this Buckeyes team is not built to make a deep run in March. Loyola can go toe-to-toe with the Buckeyes offensively while simultaneously playing better defense, so I could only look towards the Ramblers in this one. While this total might seem low for an Ohio State game, each of these teams ranks in the bottom 25% in tempo. While we know teams tend to come out of the gates slow, I think this total in the low 130’s has factored that in. Loyola Chicago PK is my best look in this game.
Villanova(-15.5) vs Delaware O/U 133.5–1:45 PM CT
Villanova is fresh off of a Big East title run, and given Jay Wright’s reputation in March paired with the experience on this roster, I’m not going to get cute and bet against them here. That being said, this Wildcats team isn’t exactly explosive offensively, shooting just 43.7% from the floor this season. They make up for that by holding the best free throw rate in the country, but that element is much more likely to show up in a close game that comes down to the wire. Given ‘Nova runs at one of the slowest paces in the country, it’s hard for me to lay 15.5 points with them in what should be a low variance game. Delaware is another veteran-laden team that is efficient from the floor, but they rank just 212th in defensive efficiency, likely because they grab defensive rebounds at only the 305th best rate in the country. In an early season matchup against a similar style team in Davidson, the Blue Hens were blown out 93-71. I don’t expect to have a play on this game, but if I had to play it, I would lean towards the Under 133.5 or Delaware TT UNDER given possessions should be at a premium.
Illinois(-7.5) vs Chattanooga O/U 135.5–Friday 5:50 PM CT
Call me crazy, but I think Chattanooga could keep this game close. The Mocs are a very experienced team that does a lot of little things very well; they make 75.2% of their free throws and also pick up offensive rebounds at a Top 50 rate. However, Illinois has a huge X-factor in Center Kofi Cockburn, who averaged 21.1 PPG and 10.6 RPG playing in the country’s best conference. Chattanooga blocks just 2.2 shots/game, and I worry how they’ll respond facing such a dominant post presence. Illinois is also very trustworthy offensively given they can also make 3’s at a high rate and hold a 1.3 assist/turnover ratio(33rd in CBB). On paper, it would appear the rebounding battle could be neck-and-neck, but then again, I think there’s a world in which Cockburn totally takes over this game. That unknown keeps me off of the Chattanooga side, and in all honesty, I think this number is about right to begin with. Chattanooga is a slow-paced team that is going to want to keep this game in the halfcourt and make the Illini offense stagnant, and Illinois has proven that it will adjust its pace based off their opponent. For that reason, I lean towards the 1H UNDER; I want to stay away from the full game Under given each team should theoretically settle in after Halftime and each team can make their foul shots. This is one of the more exciting matchups we’ll have on Friday, but there might be more value found elsewhere.
