5-1 in March Madness picks Thursday! Let’s do it again Friday, and we have yet another advantageous board in the NBA. Hope you got in most of my early plays last night. The Raptors 1H line will probably open at -5 so I changed that, and I put other additions at the bottom of the page. Let’s go! Happy Friday!
NBA Picks:
- Knicks -4.5, 2 units
- Just gotta keep playing on the Knicks. They’re surging, playing MUCH better defense, and the Wizards don’t have the firepower to hang with them right now, especially if they’re nailing 3s. I’d take this up to -6.
- Mavericks +4, 1.5 units
- The Mavericks are low-key surging into the postseason. They’re 60% ATS as an underdog and 57% ATS overall. I’ll take Luka all day over Harden, but Embiid will likely be a problem for the Mavs’ shallow front court. Even so, the Mavericks figured it out in their first matchup and with their slow pace and efficiency from the perimeter and guard position, an area where the Sixers struggle to defend. Dallas should continue to find success and they can at least take this down to the wire.
- Nets -13, 2 units
- There may not be ANY number that’s too big here. The Nets are chasing their spot in the playoffs and they’re at home, with one of the best players in the world in Durant, off a loss, against the worst roster in the association. I’d take this up to -18. I’m not kidding.
- Raptors 1H -5, 1.5 units
- How can we not play this? It’s not available at most books yet, but grab it when it is. The Lakers have not covered in 11 straight first halves, and they had serious trouble against the Raptors 3 days ago. Toronto easily won the battle in the paint and I see no reason why they won’t again. They didn’t shoot very well in the first game and it didn’t matter– they beat the Lake show by double digits. Raptors -7.5 is probably the right side, too, but I like the 1H more. I’d take it up to -5.5.
- Pacers/Rockets over 239, 1 unit
- It’s gross but this is a fast-paced game with matchup advantages on both sides– mainly Christian Wood against a BAD Indiana front court and talented Pacers’ guards against a bad perimeter defense in Houston. Lock and load- the over should be golden. Only 1 unit because these are two hard teams to trust. I’d take it up to 242.
- Pelicans +3.5, 1 unit
- The Pelicans are the right side here, even without B. Ingram. New Orleans needs to win this game, just as SAS does, and 3.5 is too many points for a relatively even talent matchup. Without Ingram, I’d still give the nod to the Pels starting 5. If they get decent bench support, this should remain close or the Pelicans will win straight up.
- Christian Wood over 33 Points/Reb/Assists (+110), 1 unit
- The Pacers have had NO answer for good front court play and C. Wood is the only rising star Houston has.
- RJ Barrett to score 27 or more points (+112), 1 unit
- RJ Barrett has led his team in scoring throughout their surge and he should feast on Washington’s porous defense tonight.
- Lean, Hawks +6
March Madness Picks, Friday:
- Loyola-Chicago wins, 1 unit
- I’ve seen enough choking from Ohio State to want to completely avoid them. Loyola has the experience and lock-down defense to win.
- Montana State under 59 pts, 1 unit
- The only defense to fear in the tournament besides Tennessee? Texas Tech, the #1 rated defense on KenPom and a team that plays agonizingly slow. It will be VERY hard for Montana State to get to 60.
- Alabama -4, 1 unit
- I know the Crimson Tide hasn’t looked as crisp this year, but they still have a ton of talent and speed to overwhelm Notre Dame and they’re inconsistent offense. The Irish got their big win Wednesday – I think Bama looks more like their brand last year tonight.
- Texas -1, 1.5 units
- Texas is limping into the tournament, but I’ll rely on proven defense before I rely on a VA Tech offense that’s looked good in spurts, but hasn’t faced the kind of resistance they’ll be up against tonight.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. -Chris
