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I have breakdowns for the 2 Sweet 16 matchups from the East quadrant (both tip Friday) and a lean for each game below. Good luck today and this weekend!!
Saint Peters/Purdue -12.5 (135.5)
The Cinderella, Saint Peters, enters this contest with the Purdue Boilermakers after knocking off a good Murray State squad in the round of 32 while Purdue took care of Texas by 10 points. Both teams enter with about a +7 point differential in the past 3 games and Purdue comes in 14-20-1 ATS as a favorite while Saint Peters is 10-3 ATS as a dog. This should be a slower paced game featuring the 260th and 251st ranked team in tempo. The Boilermakers will have a huge size advantage in this matchup as they rank 16th in average height while the Peacocks rank 295th. The strength of Saint Peters on offense is their 3 point shooting, however they only shoot from deep in 30% of their shots, which is 335th in the nation. That wont work in this matchup so I expect them to shoot more from beyond the arc in this one due to the size of Purdue. At the other end, the Boilermakers are one of the best offensive teams in the nation, if not the best, while ranking 1st in adjusted efficiency, 4th in eFG% and 13th in rebounding. This will be the end of the court to watch as the Peacocks defense is also the strength of their team. Specifically, Saint Peters ranks 5th in the nation in eFG% and 45th in turnover%. Can the Peacocks force enough turnovers to stay in this game. I could see them keeping this within single digits. Lean Saint Peters +12.5
North Carolina/UCLA -2.5 (141.5)
UNC may be the hottest team left in the tourney, however, they almost blew their 20 point lead against Baylor and won in overtime. Give the dog credit for coming out on top in OT. UCLA won their last matchup against St Marys from start to finish. In their last 3 games, the Tar Heels own a +8.3 point differential while the Bruins are +4. North Carolina is also 7-2 ATS this season with 4+days off and UCLA is 17-12 ATS as a favorite. These 2 squads have contrasting tastes in tempo as UNC likes to push the pace (ranking 54th in the nation) and the Bruins prefer to slow it down (308th). UCLA will have the clear edge in experience and depth in this one and will look to score inside the arc, like they’ve done all season, and get the Tar Heels into foul trouble and getting into their (lack of) depth. I wont be easy though, since the interior defense is the strength of the Tar Heels. Both teams are excellent from the FT line and beyond the arc but UCLA definitely prefers to drive and take mid range shots while UNC settles for more 3s. On defense, the Tar Heels don’t force many turnovers, so UCLA should win that battle, but the key to this game will be rebounding. Whoever scores more second chance points in this matchup will win this game. The Bruins rank 1st in the nation in preventing second chance conversions. Lean UCLA -2.5 and Under 141.5
