*CBB(1u): Houston/Villanova 1H UNDER 58.5(-110)–5:09 PM CT
This low number might scare you, but the pace in this game is going to be absurdly slow. Villanova ranks 345th in adjusted pace, while Houston ranks 338th. Each defense is in fantastic current form as well. Houston held Illinois to just 53 in their round of 32 matchup before holding a fast-paced Arizona team to just 60 on Thursday night. Villanova is very reliant on the 3, but they are shooting just 32% from distance over their last 2 games against vulnerable defenses in Ohio State and Michigan. This Cougars defense is a much tougher test, and when you consider Villanova is unlikely to get too many second chance points, I see the Cougars defense holding tough early. Houston is the best offensive rebounding team in College Basketball, but they are not a very reliable shooting bunch. The Cougars don’t have a swiss-army knife like Villanova has had to face in their last 2 matchups(EJ Liddel, Hunter Dickinson), and even then, Nova has allowed just 58 PPG over their last 2 games. Jay Wright is going to put together a game plan that forces Houston to settle for jumpers, and I think that spells trouble for the Cougars. When you factor in pace with how these teams match up, I think points are hard to come by early in this game. 1H Under is the play for me.
*CBB(1u): Duke 1H -2(-110) vs Arkansas–7:49 PM CT
Arkansas plays a tough brand of defense, but considering Duke just put up 78 points on the best defense in the country(Texas Tech), I still like Duke in this spot. The Blue Devils aren’t going to be fazed considering how tough of a defense they just faced. This team is efficient shooting the basketball, and they limit turnovers at one of the best rates in the country. I know Arkansas beat Gonzaga on Thursday, but we saw the Zags struggle to make shots in a way I don’t see Duke struggling tonight. Arkansas is tough inside on the offensive end, but this is not a good shooting team. In fact, the Razorbacks shoot just 30.4% from 3-point land, good for 325th in the country. JD Notae continues to hack up 3’s like he’s Steph Curry, which will come back to bite this team at some point. Duke ranks Top 10 in blocked shots and protect the paint nicely, and I don’t think well-known flopper in Arkansas’s Jaylin Williams is going to have the whistle on his side tonight. I don’t want to bet against Eric Mussellman’s team in the full game given they shoot their free throws well and are just a battle-tested bunch, but Duke has shown me a lot over the past 2 games in regards to their toughness. I like Duke to come out hot and control the game in this 1st Half.
