Baseball season has arrived. The Owners and players have an agreement, and the spring training position battles and injuries have gotten under way. I will be previewing all six divisions from a betting perspective and will give out all the futures plays for free. Last year our MLB Bets went 362-317-23 with over a 7% ROI. You can get all my premium MLB picks all season long available here https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-levels/
I’ll then do a brief article about how I see the playoffs going and where there is value in pennant and World Series odds. If you remember we picked the Super Bowl winner in the Rams in our NFL preview articles and I plan on doing it again here for MLB.
NL CENTRAL
Betting – Odds to win Division and Regular Season Over/Under Win Totals
Milwaukee Brewers -205/ 90.5
St. Louis Cardinals +200/ 84.5
Chicago Cubs +1000/ 75.5
Cincinnati Reds +1200/ 75.5
Pittsburgh Pirates +3300/ 65.5
Milwaukee Brewers – The Brew Crew is the class of this division. The pitching staff rivals anyone in baseball and they are primed to make a run at winning the whole thing. Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes are already viewed as aces, and I think Freddy Peralta will be better than both of them once he reaches a full season with no innings limits. Adrian Houser and Eric Lauer make up what could be the best #4 and #5 starters in baseball as well. The Brewers are going to win almost every game they lead going into the 8th inning with Devin Williams and Josh Hader at the back of the bullpen. The star power in the lineup hasn’t lived up to expectations the last few years as Christian Yelich has not performed up to par, but they got some great production last year out of Luis Urias, Willy Adames and Kolten Wong. The biggest piece of the puzzle for me is the addition of Hunter Renfroe. He has 40 HR power and could easily do that in the home run haven that is The Park formerly known as Miller. If Yelich figures out his swing again and Keston Hiura also fulfills his potential this could be a very dangerous lineup as well. Prediction 94-68
St. Louis Cardinals – The Cardinals have high expectations with a new manager and a roster that is mostly the same versus a year ago. That version of the Cardinals won 90 games, and the top of the order with Edman, Goldschmidt, O’neill and Arenado remains imposing. The bottom of the order leaves some to be desired for a team that finished middle of the pack in the NL in runs scored and OPS. The rotation is anchored by Adam Wainwright who will be one of three Cardinals making their farewell tours this year along with Yadier Molina and the recently acquired Albert Pujols. Jack Flaherty’s health will play a big role in if the rest of the rotation can succeed. There is a very low Strikeout ceiling from the rotation so they will need to get ground balls at a high clip to be effective. The bullpen back end features Giovanny Gallegos and Jordan Hicks, but lacks solid depth otherwise. Prediction 81-81
Chicago Cubs – As a Cubs fan last season was the end of an era for me. Blessed to have gotten to see my team win a World Series and saddened that the pieces that brought the town that title were shipped out. Gone are Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Javier Baez. Replaced by Frank Schwindel, Jonathan Villar and Nick Madrigal. This team has gone from having the most potent lineup in baseball to one that will need to rely on speed and manufacturing runs to be competitive. They did sign international free agent Seiya Suzuki to bring a big bat to the middle of the lineup. The starting rotation is Kyle Hendriks who struggled last year and a list of journeymen including Wade Miley, Drew Smyly, and Marcus Stroman. The bullpen could be a strength for the team until most of it gets traded in July. Don’t look for much magic on the north side this year. Just enjoy the atmosphere at Wrigley and the ice cold Old Style Beer. Prediction 75-87
Cincinnati Reds – Even after letting Nick Castellanos walk, A month ago the Reds were contenders in the division. Then GM Nick Krall stated, “Going into 2022, we must align our payroll to our resources.” Since then they traded All-Star Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez, and Sonny Gray out of town and have officially removed themselves from contention. 52 Year old Ken Griffey Junior is now the 6th highest payroll expense this season for the Reds getting paid 3.6 million in deferred payments. There is still talent in the lineup with Jonathan India and Joey Votto, but not much else. The pitching staff is currently hurting with Mike Minor and Luis Castillo both nursing shoulder issues. Tyler Mahle is the only remaining starter with extensive big league experience. The bullpen will likely look to Hunter Strickland to close as Lucas Sims is also hurt. This team went downhill fast and injuries could tank them even more. Prediction 73-89
Pittsburgh Pirates – The Bucs are still in rebuild mode as Bryan Reynolds enters the season as the only above replacement player from 2021 in the opening day lineup. That is not good folks. The rebuild is starting to reach the majors though and Ke’Bryan Hayes will get his first full season under his belt and another top prospect O’neill Cruz will soon make his debut. The “ace” of the rotation is Jose Quintana I guess….who couldn’t hold down a starting job anywhere last year. The bullpen is likely the best portion of this team although that isn’t saying much. Look out for the Pirates in 2026. Prediction 67-95
My Free plays on the NL Central are as follows:
My subscribers got some key insight earlier this month. I saw the Reds GM comment and told people to grab the Brewers to win the central at -113. Most were able to get it between -113 and -130. It is now probably correctly priced at -205. I still like it there, but the Cards always seem to have a knack to hang around, that is really the only other team with a shot in the central. I also think the Reds will struggle to hit their number even as it adjusted down to 75.5. I got it at 78.5, but I’m still making a smaller play here at the current number
Milwaukee Brewers -205 to win Central. Risk 2.05 to win 1 Unit
Milwaukee Brewers over 90.5 wins – 2.5 Units
Cincinnati Reds under 75.5 wins – 1 Unit
