We are now at the point in the season of our Handicapping that returning production from last year really doesn’t mean shit. There is enough current data out there to get an accurate portrayal of how these games will be played out. You still need to factor in strength of schedule when handicapping. These teams are barely into their conference play and this makes a difference.
College Football Week 5
Maryland vs Michigan -17.5
Now I know DJ Durkin has been a huge distraction to this team and it showed vs Temple, but I do think that they were penalized a bit too much for this slip up. I mean a pick 6 happened in that game and kinda threw them off. We have to remember that Maryland does have Matt Canada and I have seen him in action. He was Offensive Coordinator on a bad 2012 Badgers team to a big 10 championship. I also like Marylands rushing attack at 6.2 yards per carry led by Ty Johnson and Anthony McFarland. Their running game opens up the Pass for Kasim Hill. On the other hand Michigan destroyed a terrible Nebraska team and got way too much credit for it. That showed last week against Northwestern having to come back after almost losing outright. Michigan’s Stats have been padded by playing some very bad teams in Nebraska, SMU and Western Michigan so that 6.3 yards per play on offense and 3.5 allowing on defense doesn’t quite show the real picture. Maryland can step up the big games as you seen against Texas. Lets not forget this is a look ahead spot to Wisconsin for Michigan. I have Michigan by 12.5 points
Maryland +17.5
Kentucky vs Texas A & M -5.5
Who has been the most surprising team in football? It is certainly been Kentucky this year beating Florida, Mississippi State, and South Carolina. They are averaging 6.2 yards per play and allowing just 4.4 on defense. Kentucky is a top 20 team against the pass while Texas A & M ranks 104th. What I really like about Kentucky is that they are 4th in the nation in opponent yards per point at 21.5. HUGE ON DEFENSE! Now I know A&M has played Clemson and Bama but I think they get a little too much credit for almost beating a Clemson team that looks down this year. The Aggies do have a good offense averaging 6.6 yards per play but they also give up 6.2 yards per play and that doesn’t bode well. They also have turnover issues. The Arkansas game last week really says a lot to me when they only won by 1 touchdown here. I think this game should be more of a Pickem.
Kentucky + 5.5 & ML Sprinkle
Syracuse vs Pittsburgh +5
This line is wrong. I do not care how well Pittsburg plays at home. This Pitt team is bad and can only handle the bad teams of the FBS. They average 22 points a game at 5.5 yards per play while Syracuse averages 44 points a game at 6 yards per play. On Defense Syracuse also has the edge allowing 5.8 yards per play to Pittsburgh’s 6.3. Now Pitt has played a tougher schedule at this point and could not score more than 14 points vs UCF and 6 at home vs Penn State. The Panthers also really benefitted by playing a weakened North Carolina team with guys on suspension and a bad Georgia Tech triple option team at home.
Syracuse -5
Kansas State vs Baylor -3
Now I got this one early and see that its -4.5 now but I like it anyways. K state is not the same K state team of the recent years. They only average 3.6 yards per rush which is 1.3 worse than last year and 1.6 worse than 2016. Skyler Thompson’s passer rating is also a dismal 129 ranking 88th in college football. Baylor just got done playing powerhouse Oklahoma and is now more game tested for this week. Baylor’s Charlie Brewer has an OK passer rating of 143.5 but the key to this game is that Baylor can move the ball. They are 11th in Pace and is averaging 167 more yards per game than K State. Both teams defensive match up pretty equally giving up about 5.3 yardes per run and both at about 1150 passing yards this year.
Baylor -3 all the way to 6
Notre Dame vs Virginia Tech +5.5 O/U is now 57
So we know that Notre Dame is playing a much better game with Ian Book and it showed last week vs Stanford. Now its time for the ole let down spot that we love to look at so much. The question is, how much can they let down at Va Tech? Ryan Willis came out firing vs Duke for the Hokies passing 17/27 and 332 yards with 3 Tds while Duke came out flat… But my question is how much of that flatness was Va Tech great defense ? I think this Tech defense really didn’t take Old Dominion seriously and that is why they allowed 49 points to them throwing the average stats off. Hell, maybe the team went out and partied the night before that game. No clue but tech’s defense would definitely look way better if it wasn’t for that terrible old dominion game and they still allow only 20 points per game without. Notre Dame on the other hand only allows 4.5 yards per play and 19 points per game. Both teams play at a slightly above average pace of play but I think with the let down spot for Irish and how much this game means to the Hokies that points will come at a premium this game.
Notre Dame under 57 points
SMU vs UCF – O/U 71
If you know anything about these teams then I probably do not even have to tell you my side here. UCF plays at a very fast pace at 77 plays per game but it would look a lot faster if they quit blowing out some of these teams… UCF averages 49 points per game. On the other hand SMU is traditionally a fast paced team that averages 29 points per game but gives up 39 points per game. Most importantly here I think that SMU has kinda figured a few things out since their Michigan and TCU blow out losses. They put up 31 vs Navy and 63 against a bad FCS team Houston Baptist. We need just 21 points out of the mustangs to cover this total. I think since UCF is looking ahead to Memphis this week that they will allow some points to be scored with the second string playing the 4th quarter.
UCF over 71
Miami (OH) vs Akron -3.5
This is probably the best free pick that I can give you this week. Miami Ohio is not a good team this year. It isn’t hard to see this when they are averaging 5.1 yards per play against some pretty bad teams. The Redbirds are giving up 5.2 yards per play against a pretty weak schedule with the likes of Marshall, Western Michigan, Minnesota, and Bowling green. Akron on the other hand is MUCH IMPROVED since last year already tasting big victory against the Northwestern Wildcats and played well against Iowa State in the let down spot the next week. The Zips are coming off a bye in this spot and the Redhawks are still hurting over that close game against Western Michigan at home. This team is tired. Forget that Akron is averaging 5.4 yards per play against this tough schedule. This game is more about defense in which the Zips are only giving up 4.45 yards per play total and 2.6 years per play on the ground. Power ratings say Akron by 10 points here minimum.
Akron -3.5 and is my top play
Oregon State vs Washington St – Premium
Georgia Tech vs Louisville – Premium
Tulsa vs Houston – Premium
Cal vs Arizona – Premium
Other Plays:
Wisconsin -20.5 hosting Nebraska – What do we say? When bad teams play fast, they lose fast. You see this with all Nebraska games as well as Wake Forest and Uconn. Wisconsin is coming off a bye and get some injured players back like Van Ginke. Expect a boat race here.
USF vs Umass +14 – USF is fake news. They should have lost to Georgia Tech and barely lost to Illinois. Now they have to travel to Massachusetts that has a healthier QB in Ford. South Florida has 2 Running backs questionable for this game and are down 1 starting wide receiver.
Old Dominion vs Florida Atlantic Over 65.5 points – FAU plays pretty fast football and is dying for a win after losing 2 in a row. Old Dominion has stepped it up the last 2 games vs Va tech and East Carolina scoring an average of 42 points vs those opponents. Blake Larussa has been looking good throwing for 2 Tds vs East Carolina and 495 yards and 4 TDs vs Va Tech. I expect a shoot out here. Oh, and did i mention that both defenses allow over 36 points per game and 6.3 yards per play?
Auburn -3.5 vs Miss State – QB Nick Fitzgerald is not a fit for a Joe Moorhead type offense and we have seen this vs Kentucky and Florida. You need a good pocket passer and he isn’t that. They haven’t really beaten anyone and Auburn is more battle tested and can’t afford a loss. Miss state is still one of the most over rated teams IMO.
Airforce +3.5 and ML Sprinkle vs Navy – Line is way off
The Sharp line Report:
Middle Tennessee state at Marshall to -6.5
Mizzu at South Carolina to +1
Maryland at Michigan to +17
Ball State hosting NIU to +3
San Diego State at Boise State smurf turf to +14
Iowa State to +10 vs Oklahoma State
UNLV -9.5 vs New Mexico
Old Dominion +13.5 at Florida Atlantic
SMU to +24 vs UCF for the look ahead spot
Georgia -26 at Vandy
Sharp Totals
Georgia state vs Troy under to 54.5
Tulsa at Houston over to 71
Middle Tennessee vs Marshal over 52
Illinois vs Rutgers under to 50.5
North Western vs Michigan State under to 44
Eastern Michigan vs Western Michigan under to 59
Arkansas vs Bama under 59
Boston College vs NC State over to 59.5
Ohio vs Kent State over to 71.5 WOW.
Bowling green vs Toledo under to 73
Miami Ohio vs Akron over 48
Florida State vs Miami over 48.5
Wake forest vs Clemson over to 62.5
Iowa vs Minnesota under 42
Vandy vs Georgia under 52
Cal vs Arizona over to 57.5
Wyoming vs Hawaii over 58
NFL Week 5!
LA Rams vs Seattle Seahawks – +7 O/U 50
So another division rivalry game this weekend but one team is on the up and one is definitely on the down. The Rams are second in the league in Passing with 363 yards per game and 7th in Rushing at 125. They lead the league in efficiency and it isn’t even close. On the other side the Seattle defense has been stepping up when it needed to getting the W at home against the Cowboys and last week against the Cardinals. The problem with Seattle is that they faced some very easy competition and still ranks second to last at 196 yards per game passing the ball and only 106 rushing. The Seahawks should not have won last week due to a Cardinals missed field goal and even worse, earl Thomas broke his leg and is out for the season. To add more punishment to pain, Mychal Kendricks their strong side linebacker was suspended by the NFL for securities fraud and insider trading so the Seahawks will have to rely on rookie Shaquem Griffen. The currently have one of the best defenses in the NFL with Arron Donald going nuts and throwing people like rag dolls. They rank 8th and will show better after playing the Seahawks. Looking at Seattle injury report, this team is in some major troubles. If you look at these schedules it is pretty obvious that the Rams have had much harder offensive competition. Plus I love how the Rams have had 10 days to prepare for Russell Wilson. This should be a 10 point spread in my opinion and I don’t see Seattle moving the ball
Rams -7
Indianapolis vs New England – 10 O/U 51.5
The Pats found their groove last week spreading the ball out to guys like Cordelle Patterson, Chris Hogan, Josh Gordon and Gronk. This week they get Julian Edelman back which makes it an even a scary thing to go up against this offense. On the other side of the coin, the patriots defense is giving up 347 yards per game and the colts are giving up 377. This game is all about the Injury report here. The Colts are missing their best LB Darius Leonard and he is doubtful to play this game being in a walking boot on Monday. There are also 3 corner backs that did not participate in Mondays practice and as of now 2 of their right corner backs are out for the game Kenny Moore and Quincy Nelson. Safety Clayton Geathers is also questionable. Even if Leonard can play he will be less then 80%. The Patriots should be able to score very easily against this hobbled second-rate defense. New England ranks 10th in yards per point at 14.2 and the colts are right under them at 14.3. I know TY Hilton is banged up but there are still some good weapons on this colts team with Ebron at tight end, Ryan Grant and Chester Rodgers at WR. Nyheim Hines has also been ripping it up at RB with Marlon Mack out. Due to the offensive passing power of these teams, i think they should be able to drive this score up. I have the Patriots winning 35 to 21 for a total of 56 and I think the Patriots Roll.
Over 51.5 and Patriots -10
Falcons vs Steelers – 3 O/U 58 –
Ok, if you look at these 2 teams there are very similar. From a metrics standpoint, both teams are very vulnerable in the middle of their defense with the Steelers never filling the Ryan Shazier gap and the Falcons losing Deon Jones earlier in September. Atlanta last weekend lost DE Grady Jarrett but quickly signed Michael Bennett off waivers to replace him. Both teams allow about 6 yards per play on defense and on offense are around about 411 yards per game. Atlanta has more yards per play though at 6.5 due to having less plays per game. So the biggest thing for me is how will these teams attack the middle of the field. We know that Vance Mcdonald is a beast but will Mike Tomlin be smart enough to quit throwing the ball to Diva Antonio Brown and actually try and game plan this game? I doubt it. Not saying Steve Sarkesian and Dan Quinn are offensive Geniuses but they should be smart enough to throw the ball to Austin Hooper the Tight end in the middle of the field. Another thing that I like is that Antonio Freeman might be back this game opening up some passing lanes for the short game. If you look at who these teams have played it is very obvious to me who had the tougher schedule here and the Falcons have faced the Saints, Panthers, Super bowl champion Eagles and Bengals while the Steelers faced the Bucs, Ravins, Chiefs and Browns. I have to keep fading the Steelers here.
Falcons +3
2 Teaser Bonus!
Carolina Panthers to -1 with the under on the Bills vs Titans game to 45 – Carolina off the bye and Bills vs Titans should be low scoring.
Bengals to -.5 with the Rams to -1 – Bengals get Vontez Burfect back and will hype u this D.
