I’ve locked in 2 official plays for tonight’s Final Four and plan to live bet up to 2 more plays over the course of one of these games. To receive a text when I add any plays to my card, join my Telegram group! Enjoy the games, and let’s have ourselves a night!
*CBB(1u): Villanova 1H +2(-110) vs Kansas–5:09 PM CT
*CBB(0.5u): Villanova 1H ML(+135) vs Kansas–5:09 PM CT
Kansas looked like a well-oiled machine in the second half of their last game vs Miami, but this is also a team that has yet to put up a good 40 minute effort against a viable team in the Tournament. They trailed by 6 at the Half in that Miami game, squeaked out a 5 point win against Providence in a game the Friars shot just 34% from the floor, and let a depleted Creighton team hang around for far too long. The Jayhawks can certainly turn it up offensively, but I believe this Villanova defense is ready for the challenge. I know Ohio State and Michigan are far from complete teams, but each has a very good offense. We saw the Wildcats allow just 61 to Ohio State and then just 55 to Michigan. I think Kansas’ defense is the worst unit on the floor, and they’re going to face a Villanova offense that doesn’t beat themselves. The Wildcats run at one of the slowest paces in the country, take care of the basketball, and oftentimes get very good looks from beyond the arc. I know the new environment might lead you to believe the more 3-point dependent team could struggle early, but given Villanova’s experience level and consistency, I don’t expect them to flinch even in this new environment.
I know the Wildcats are without Justin Moore, and I won’t try to convince you that is not a big loss. HOWEVER, Jay Wright has a system, and that system works. I have a hard time believing that, with a week to prepare for this game, Wright won’t find a way to account for Moore’s loss. Jay Wright has won 2 championships in the last 6 years and is in the Final Four this year for a reason. While Bill Self recruits at a high level, we’ve only seen him be able to hang up 1 banner despite having far more talented rosters than Wright. I think there is a sizable coaching edge in this game, and I think we see that on display more so in the first half than in the second. I know Villanova’s incredible free-throw efficiency usually makes them a safe bet over the full game, but we’ve also seen Kansas be able to turn it up offensively to a level that I don’t want to play against over the Full Game. With that said, I like Villanova 1H +2 and 1H ML in this spot.
*Duke/North Carolina Plan
I think the current number(Duke -4) is razor sharp. While I would certainly lean towards Duke pregame, I ultimately don’t want to lay more than a possession with the Blue Devils in this spot. So, I’m going to look to live bet the side and total of this game depending on what type of start we get. We saw Duke trail by 4 at Halftime to Texas Tech and ultimately win by 5; I think we could get a similar type of result tonight. Rather than buy any points and have to lay an insane amount of juice, I’m going to wait until I can live bet Duke at -2 or better. The Blue Devils have shown me a lot over their last 3 games; to be down 5 with 2 minutes to go against Michigan State and win by 9, and then to put up 78 on arguably the 2 best defenses remaining in the Tournament is very impressive. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a fast start from UNC, but I don’t think they’ll sustain the level of efficiency they’ve shown as of late for the full 40 minute game. I also want to live bet this Over once these teams get their bearings in the unfamiliar environment. 151.5 is an extremely high total for a Final Four game, but in these teams’ two prior matchups, they combined for 154 points in Chapel Hill and then 175 points in Cameron Indoor. I do believe there will be an adjustment period early in this game for both squads, but when push comes to shove and these teams settle in, I expect the offensive efficiency of each team to pick up greatly.
