Baseball season has arrived. The Owners and players have an agreement, and the spring training position battles and injuries have gotten under way. I will be previewing all six divisions from a betting perspective and will give out all the futures plays for free. Last year our MLB Bets went 362-317-23 with over a 7% ROI. You can get all my premium MLB picks all season long available here https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-levels/
I’ll then do a brief article about how I see the playoffs going and where there is value in pennant and World Series odds. If you remember we picked the Super Bowl winner in the Rams in our NFL preview articles and I plan on doing it again here for MLB.
AL East
Betting – Odds to win Division and Regular Season Over/Under Win Totals
Toronto Blue Jays +140/ 92.5
New York Yankees +225/ 92.5
Tampa Bay Rays +225/ 88.5
Boston Red Sox +525/ 85.5
Baltimore Orioles +4500/ 62.5
Toronto Blue Jays – The Blue Jays who are very young took a big step forward last year winning 91 games. The offensive attack is led by 2nd generation MLBers Vlad Guerrero Jr., and Bo Bichette. George Springer will likely lead the league in runs and boppers Matt Chapman and Teoscar Hernandez will bring him home plenty of times. They made huge upgrades to the pitching staff adding Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios. They are strong at closer with Jordan Romano, but the rest of the bullpen is below average. They should take a step forward and pass the Yanks and Rays in the division this year. Prediction 94-68
New York Yankees – The Bronx Bombers won 92 games last year but suffered an early exit in the post season. Their lineup features an impressive top to bottom power attack that added Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa this off season. Anthony Rizzo also resigned with the club following his stint with the Yanks last fall. They will join the mashers in the middle of the order Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Joey Gallo. The pitching staff is anchored by Cy Young runner up Gerrit Cole. The rest of the rotation showcases Jordan Montgomery, Luis Severino, Nestor Cortes, and Jameson Taillion. They could look for an upgrade from a trade yet in season for the rotation. The bullpen remains solid with Aroldis Chapman and Chad Green shutting things down in the late innings. Prediction 92-70
Boston Red Sox – The Sox made it all the way to the ALCS in 2021 and certainly outperformed the pundits expectations. The lineup is very similar to 2021, but will add Trevor Story who will look to see if he can take his success at Coors Field to Fenway. The pitching staff is currently a question mark. Chris Sale will be out until at least May, and James Paxton will likely be out the first half of year as he recovers from Tommy John. That leaves Nathan Eovaldi as the staff work horse, along with young over-performers from last year Tanner Houck and Nick Pivetta. Garrett Whitlock will look to transition to the rotation from the bullpen. In that bullpen Matt Barnes has amazing stuff, but he fell apart down the stretch last year. I think this team still makes some noise in 2022. Prediction 88-74
Tampa Bay Rays – The Rays won 100 games last year and took home their second straight AL East title. They will be a youth movement again on offense, with all world prospect Wander Franco and playoff sensation Randy Arozarena at the top of the order. Brandon Lowe a silver slugger at 2nd and Austin Meadows are in the middle to bring them home. Mike Zunino is an all or nothing cather who could hit 40 bombs and strikeout 200 times. The rotation brought in Corey Kluber who will look to regain his past success. Shane McClanahan and Shane Baz should follow him. The rest of the rotation is underwhelming. The bullpen by committee approach and the bullpen openers were recently invented by the Rays and they have arms to do it again in 2022. Prediction 84-78
Baltimore Orioles – The orange birds are not good. They have been rebuilding for four years. And while the Rays keep churning out young prospects that can compete, the O’s keep churning out 100 loss seasons. They do have a 30/30 homegrown player in Cedric Mullins, and upcoming catching prospect Adley Rutschman to look forward to. John Means is solid in the rotation, but that is it. Bullpen closer Cole Sulser has the stuff to be successful, but wont get the chance to bring home saves very often. They just don’t have the talent to compete in this stacked division. Prediction 64-98
My Free plays on the AL East are as follows:
I think the Rays way outdid themselves last year. The rest of the division made improvements where they stood relatively pat. That number seems high. I think the Red Sox can repeat what they did last year and there’s some value on the division number and season win total for them.
Boston Red Sox to win Division +525 – 1 Unit
Boston Red Sox over 85.5 Wins – 1 Unit
Tampa Bay Rays under 88.5 wins – 2 Units
