The wild and zany world of NBA betting only gets crazier in this final week of the regular season. Figuring out which teams are motivated and which aren’t isn’t as easy as it may seem, but we have a few value-bets we like today. Let’s attack!
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Cavs -8.5 (-110): The Cavaliers are one of the few teams where motivation shouldn’t be waning. Cleveland currently sits in the 7th spot, which means they would need to participate in the play-in tournament if the postseason started today. That’s something they would rather avoid altogether. A team that’s regressed on both offense and defense recently, the Cavs aren’t the same team without their two star bigs, Jarrett Allen and rookie Evan Mobley. Allen and Mobley should be back by the time the playoffs begin, but for now the Cavs need to knuckle-up and survive by maximizing their perimeter offense. Darius Garland and Caris LaVert now have plenty of reps without their bigs leading up to this contest, and Lauri Markkanen has become a trustworthy shooter for their backcourt. Last time these two teams faced, just 5 games ago, Cleveland only bested the Magic by 6 points. A big part of that was because of Wendall Carter Jr., Orlando’s burgeoning center, who had 15 points, 12 rebounds, 6 assists, and a +4 point differential at home. He won’t play in today’s game, and that’s a major positive for Cleveland. The Cavs should be able to control the pace of this game and limit Orlando’s young shooters (who are among the NBA’s worst this season) to ensure they snag a victory and cover this line. The Bulls are 2 games ahead of the Cavaliers but Chicago has 3 tough games remaining to finish the season. The Cavs returning to the #6 spot is far from impossible– bet Cleveland.
Timberwolves 1H over 64.5 (-115): It’s no mystery that the Minnesota Timberwolves are easily one of the most explosive and productive offenses this season. For the majority of 2022, they were rated as the NBA’s #1 offense. Over their last 3 games, they’ve scored 80, 70, and 60 points in the first half, and two of those contests were against very solid defenses (Toronto and Denver). Tonight they face one of the league’s worst defenses (Washington is 21st in paint points allowed, 27th in DEF EFF since the All-Star break, and they allow 112 ppg, good for 17th overall). And their front court resistance has arguably become even less capable- Kristaps Porzingis, although known for his sweet jump shot and perimeter ability, is nothing to fear on defense. The Timberwolves, led by Karl Anthony-Towns (KAT), are having a breakout year and much of that is how they attack the rim. When KAT isn’t dominating down low, they’re the #1 offense in both 3-pointers attempted and 3-pointers made per game. Minnesota should explode from tipoff and gain an early lead. Remember, they’re in the 7th spot in the West, so there’s still plenty to strive for (i.e. avoiding the play-in tournament). I’m on Minnesota.
