I’m off to a 4-0-1, +4.23u start through 2 days of the MLB season! Today, I’ve got 3 plus-money plays looking to keep the good times rollin’. If you’d like to receive a text when I release any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Giants -1.5(+145) vs Marlins–3:05 PM CT
Carlos Rodon is coming off an All-Star season and will make his Giants debut in a DREAM matchup. The Marlins ranked just 29th in OPS against lefties last season and shouldn’t be expected to drastically improve in that department this season. Marlins SP Pablo Lopez has good numbers to this point in his career, but much like yesterday’s starter Sandy Alcantara, Lopez benefits from pitching in a graveyard in Marlins Park. On the road last season, we saw Lopez’s ERA jump up to 4.34, his WHIP jump to 1.23, and his HR/9 climb above 1.0. The Giants love to stack lefties, and with the wind blowing out 11 mph into the bay, I think they’re suited to take advantage. I know we saw the Marlins force extra innings yesterday, but I still give the Giants the edge in the bullpen. This price at +145 is way too good for me to pass up; I think the path is clear for a comfortable Giants victory today.
*MLB(1u): Reds F5 ML(+145) @ Braves–6:20 PM CT
For reasons that are beyond me, Kyle Wright will take the ball for Atlanta today. Through 4 seasons, the righty holds a 6.56 ERA and 1.69 WHIP. He has shown no signs of improvement at the big league level, and I’m not going to expect things to turn around against this Reds lineup. I know Jesse Winker and Nick Castellanos were large losses for the Reds, but this lineup seems destined for another productive season. The Reds have scored 6 runs in each game, giving the Braves all they can handle; I’m not expecting that to change facing a guy who has no business being in the big leagues. Reds SP Vladamir Gutierrez’s rookie numbers don’t pop out, but you have to consider his home ballpark is one of the toughest for pitchers in the league. On the road last season, we saw his ERA drop to 3.80 and his HR/9 plummet to just 1/9 innings. In 2 starts against the Braves last season, he went 6 innings and recorded a quality start(3 ER or less) in each. There’s no way I’d bet the Reds over the full game given their bullpen struggles, but I like them at this price when you isolate the SP’s.
*MLB(0.65u): Athletics F5 ML(+155) @ Phillies–3:05 PM CT
If you read yesterday’s article, you’ll know that I’m not too high on this A’s lineup; that remains true. However, I think we’re getting some value on the underdog early in this game. Phillies SP Kyle Gibson erupted out of nowhere and was putting up Cy Young numbers last year in Texas, but I believe a lot of that was aided by the ballpark he was pitching in. We saw him plummet back down to Earth down the stretch last season when he was traded to Philly, and it’s worth noting that he has a 4.45 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over 9 major league seasons. The A’s actually put together some good swings later in yesterday’s game and ended up totaling 5 runs, so it’s not wild to think they could carry that momentum into today. Athletics SP Cole Irvin is a soft throwing lefty that is going to limit walks and pitch to contact. While the Phillies lineup came out hot yesterday, we’ve yet to see how they react to soft-throwing lefties who can spot up. Again, I don’t want to throw a full unit on this because the Phillies can erupt at anytime, but I still think Gibson is being overvalued after a fluky start to last season. I’ll put 0.65u on this to win that full unit.
