Well the Brewers really shit the bed, huh? No comment on the Mariners, let’s move on. Excited to get these NBA playoffs started!
NBA Picks:
- Nets 1Q -3, 1 unit
- Publicized “rumors” tell us that Jarrett Allen probably won’t play for Cleveland tonight, which is a big downgrade for the Cavs. This is a big line full game, one that we’ve seen Brooklyn blow plenty (Brooklyn was the 2nd worst ATS team in the NBA, covering at only 40%), so I can’t take the full line. The Nets should come out hot in this contest though, looking to get an early lead so they can sit comfortably ahead and play their type of basketball. At home at a raucous Barclays Center, the porous perimeter defense of Cleveland should get shook early and give Durant and Kyrie and Curry plenty of opportunities to score. Early advantage goes to Brooklyn and if they come out in rhythm, this could get ugly quick.
- Nets/Cavs under 229.5, 1.5 units
- We’ve talked at length about totals in the NBA playoffs and how they decrease. Not only do totals decrease, but so does tempo. The only chance CLE has to stay in this contest is to slow it down and play their brand of basketball. Their defense has sharpened over the last week or so, looking more like the unit we saw earlier in the season, and the Nets have certainly shown a new gear on defense, too. This line is right, it has to be higher because of Brooklyn’s potential on offense, but if the Cavs can slow this game down even a tiny bit, this will fall way below 230. If it starts off fast, look to live bet the under when it inflates. The action should slow down in the 4th QTR.
- Clippers +3, 1 unit
- I’m pulling the trigger on LAC. Long story short, I give LAC the advantage in a few very important categories: 3-point defense, overall defense, and playoff experience. The Timberwolves are a young, exciting team but in case you forgot, they didn’t make the postseason last year. These young bucks are as explosive and talented as it gets, but elite athleticism and potentiality doesn’t necessarily equate to wins in the playoffs. After all, you’re competing against the best teams in the association, many of which aren’t seeded properly because of injuries and other complications. The Clippers are a great example of that. If PG was in the lineup all 6 months, is this a play-in team? I don’t think so. The Clippers stayed afloat and outside the play-in spot for most of the season, even without their two enigmas in PG and Kawhi. Minnesota barely got there, even after consistently terrific showings from their stars all year. I have this at EVEN, so I have to take the points with the dog.
MLB Picks:
- Red Sox win, 1.25 units to win 1
- Is it still winter in Boston? Cuz this team has started their season ICE COLD. Sitting near or at the bottom of the MLB in pretty much every batting category that exists, the Red Sox need to find their bats and this looks like an ideal spot to do it. Boston slumped into Monday after a big game Sunday night, which is an angle we’ll watch out for, but today’s matchup should suit them well. I trust Rich Hill (3.86 ERA, 4.34 FIP last season), who’s beyond his prime but has remained consistent throughout his career, to put forth a solid effort against a beatable lineup. Whereas Tyler Alexander, who has solid numbers himself, could easily fall victim to the power of Boston’s lineup. I think the Red Sox step up in this contest and get a W.
- Mets win, 1 unit to win 1.35 units (+135)
- What’s not to like about what we saw from Tylor Megill in his opener? Five innings, a 0.00 ERA, and what looks like a stronger arm than ever (95.9 four seam fastball velocity). He’ll oppose Zach Wheeler, who had a sensational season in 2021, but I really like the confidence and efficiency we’re seeing from the Mets’ offense. This could be a 0-0 type game heading into the 6th inning, and I trust NYM’s bullpen much more than a Philly pen that’s overperformed thus far. Value on the Mets here.
