What’s up people! Damn good night – too bad the Clippers didn’t cover. Sure as hell played out like they should have, but ya gotta finish there, Clipps. Onto today’s picks!
NBA Picks:
- Hawks 1Q -1.5, 1 unit, and
- Hornets full game +5, 1 unit
- Let’s attack this game two different ways. The Hornets have played Atlanta well this year, splitting the series 2-2, and their two losses were kind of phony. One was against a fully healthy Hawks team (which won’t be the case with John Collins out tonight), and one was an aberration where Charlotte shot like a high school team. We don’t think that’ll be the case Wednesday. Without John Collins, the Hornets should be able to find their way to the front court often. Capela and Hunter and company haven’t been as formidable on defense this season. And once Charlotte finds a rhythm, and I believe they will in the 2nd half, that could create disastrous results for the hometown Hawks. Trae Young is the best player on the court, but Charlotte has more upside on the offensive end and I’d argue, better team chemistry. Atlanta usually starts off hot – they’re one of the best 1st and 2nd QTR offenses in the NBA, while the Hornets have virtually no defense to speak of in the first 24 minutes. At home, I’ll play on Atlanta getting the early lead, but 5 points is too much in what should be a battle as this game nears the final whistle. Remember, these games are win or go home, so the intensity will be at an all-time high in both contests tonight.
- Lean Spurs +5, lean under
- Long story short, I think this number is pretty damn sharp. Still, when it comes down to pure numbers and probabilities, the Spurs are healthy and shouldn’t be annihilated by the Pelicans in this matchup. Dejounte Murray and his supporting cast have the ability to overwhelm New Orleans if they’re in-sync, and the Pels rely on a highly-efficient mid-range offense to methodically secure their wins. I won’t bet this game but if I had to, my money would be on the road dog.
- Nuggets/Warriors under 224, 1.5 units
- We missed the best number on this but I have the total capped at 218, which is still WAY lower. The Warriors will make life very difficult for Denver, who looked exhausted to end the regular season after having to play their starters for way too many minutes down the stretch. Golden State’s defense looked a lot like its former, more refined self in the last few games to end the regular season, and they’ll need to pester Jokic and dare players like Aaron Gorden and Will Barton to force shots. I think they’ll succeed, and veteran players like Draymond Green and Steph Curry (yes, he’ll be back) will show no lack of effort at home. Both of these units are relatively slower paced – I still see plenty of value on the under here.
MLB Picks:
- Mets/Phillies No Run in First Inning, 1.35 units to win 1
- Two pitchers in Scherzer and Nola that are looking to redeem their poor opening starts, I like this game to start off crisp with two seasoned aces.
- Brewers/Orioles under 8, 1.15 units to win 1
- Burnes and Means could take this game scoreless into the 6th inning, especially after Burnes started his season so poorly. I expect a much cleaner performance from him against a very beatable lineup. Means looks like the O’s most solid pitcher once again, and Milwaukee’s bats haven’t looked all that impressive in the early going.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
Always appreciate all of you! -Chris
