I lost my lone MLB play on the Padres F5 yesterday, but through 1 week of the season, I sit at 8-7-1, +1.78u. I’m rolling with a pair of MLB plays for tonight looking to get us some momentum into this weekend. If you’d like to receive a text whenever I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Angels/Rangers F5 UNDER 4.5(-120)–7:05 PM CT
Rangers SP Dane Dunning held a respectable 3.09 ERA at home last year, but what’s even more impressive is that he allowed just 0.5 HR/9 at Globe Life Field. It’s not hard to see why the sinkerballer’s 2.35 groundball/fly ball rate would play well in that park. The Angels do have some thunder in the top of their order, but 5-9 is very manageable. Meanwhile, Shohei Ohtani will tote the rubber for the Angels looking to build off his last start that saw him strike out 9 Astros hitters in 4.2 IP and yield just 1 run. Ohtani’s road numbers from last year are inflated from 2 blowup starts in Yankee Stadium and Minute Maid Park, but his WHIP, K/9, and HR/9 all mirror his home numbers. The Rangers are another top-heavy order with Marcus Semien and Corey Seager and then a ton of fringe AAA players throughout the rest of their order. Given how big this ballpark plays, I envision each pitcher limiting the damage and being able to feast on the lack of depth each lineup has.
*MLB(1u): Rockies -1.5(+145) vs Cubs–7:40 PM CT
The Rockies are a completely different team playing in their home ballpark. If you don’t believe me, consider the fact that the Rockies compiled an .817 OPS at home last year vs just a .638 OPS on the road. This lineup got better this offseason adding Kris Bryant and Randal Grichuk, and we’ve seen things click immediately. They’ll get an advantageous matchup today facing Justin Steele, a lefty with just 62 innings under his belt over his career. The Cubs bullpen is below average to begin with, and they’ll enter tonight having gone pretty deep in their ‘pen each of the last 2 nights. Colorado, meanwhile, enjoyed a nice day off yesterday; surprisingly enough, their bullpen has recorded a very impressive 0.91 WHIP so far this season. Kyle Freeland will start today’s game looking bounce back after a rough start vs the Dodgers. Freeland has had somewhat of an up-and-down career in Colorado, but he still has the advantage over Steele with this being his 6th year pitching at Coors Field. The Cubs scored just 2 runs each of the past 2 games against an inferior Pirates pitching staff, and I’m not scared to play against this lineup with the way they’re currently constructed. I really don’t think people have caught on to just how good the Rockies are at home, and I think this line is far too short. Rather than lay any juice, I see more value in taking the +145 on the run line and continuing to trust a team that has shown buy signs early in the season.
