Entering the new week, I sit at 10-10-1, +0.48u in the young MLB season. I’m rolling with a pair of plays for tonight looking to build on a 2-0, +2.2u Saturday. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Angels F5 ML(+143) @ Astros–7:10 PM CT
The Astros are simply not in good current form offensively. If you take away a lone 13 run output against the Angels last weekend, this team is averaging just 2.25 runs/game across their other 8 games. This will be their first game back at home after a 10 game road trip to begin the season, and they’ll have zero days rest to settle back in and will lose 2 hours after spending a good amount of time on the West coast. Angels SP Michael Lorenzen looked dominant in season debut against the Marlins; the verdict is still out on whether Lorenzen can have a successful 2022 campaign, but I do think he carries the form we saw in his last start into tonight. The Angels enter tonight off of 3 straight wins in Arlington that saw them average over 8 runs/game. Astros SP Luis Garcia has enjoyed a very solid start to his young career, but he hasn’t had that same success against this Angels lineup. Shohei Ohtani and Jared Walsh are a combined 11 for 23 with 4 HR’s against Garcia in past matchups, and the supplemental pieces in this Angels lineup are in good current form as well. Mike Trout will be out of the lineup today, but I’m not going to let that keep me off the Angels in this “one-off” spot. The Astros will almost assuredly round into form as they settle into this 6 game home stand, but this is not the spot in which they do so. Give me the Angels F5 at a great price.
*MLB(1u): Phillies/Rockies OVER 11(-115)–7:40 PM CT
I backed Rockies SP Chad Kuhl in his last start at Globe Life Field, but he is not a guy I think will fare well pitching in hitter-friendly Coors Field this season. Kuhl had a dreadful 7.32 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, and 2.3 HR/9 pitching away from PNC Park last season, and 4 walks in his last start don’t inspire much confidence about what we’ll get from him tonight. The Phillies lineup struggled for most of the weekend in Marlins Park, but this is a dream “get right” spot for a lineup that can explode at any time. The Rockies bullpen has actually held up well through 9 games, but I don’t believe that to be sustainable. Phillies SP Aaron Nola has struggled through 2 starts this season, and I don’t believe this is the spot in which he turns things around. Nola has been considerably worse on the road throughout his career, and that is likely to be exacerbated pitching in Coors Field. While the sample size is small, five projected starters in this Rockies lineup have a career OPS of 1.000 or higher against Nola, with Kris Bryant sitting just outside the threshold with a .949 OPS. The Phillies bullpen has been pretty mediocre to start the season, and this is a tough spot facing a Rockies lineup that was the best in baseball hitting in their home ballpark last season. A total at 11 might seem high, but I don’t believe it to be high enough in this particular matchup.
