MLB Free Plays Friday – Getting Freaky with Freddy

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Hasn’t been a stellar start to baseball season for me. 25-28-1 is where we sit so far. Trying to get back on the good side today. You can get all my plays here at TheOddsbreakers.com for $50 a month. That includes MLB going on now, as well as Horse Racing (Derby is coming!), NFL, NCAAF and NCAAB.

Looking at Friday plays the first game that jumped out at me was the Brewers (+104) vs the Phillies (-124) O/U 8. Taking the bump are Freddy Peralta for the Crew and Ranger Suarez for the Phils. Both pitchers are very similar. They both feature a ++ Fastball (Or sinker in Ranger’s case) and a dangerous slider.  Freddy Peralta’s fastball was the 7th best pitch in baseball according to statcast in 2021. and Suarez’s sinker was the 9th best. So far neither has pitched well. Suarez is 1-0 with a 5.87 ERA, a 1.96 WHIP over 7.2 IP with 5 Ks and 4 BBs. Freddy Peralta on the flip side has a 11.57 ERA, a 2.29 WHIP over 7 IP with 10 Ks and 6 BBs. The problem for both is finding the plate and then getting hit hard when forced to pitch across it. Currently BABIP against for Peralta is a crazy .474 and his LOB% is only 51.3%. While neither of these trends will continue I trust Freddy to get back on track quicker simply do to his advantage in keeping the ball out of play by striking guys out. His xFIP even with all the issues is only at 3.95, Suarez sits at 4.69.

The Phillies offense has been the better of the two so far early this season, and with Harper, Schwarber, Realmuto and Castellanos that is to be expected. They have already made a trip to Coors, so that does factor in some. Milwaukee hasn’t gotten their boppers going yet, and that is concerning, however no one has really gotten going yet outside of Vlad Jr, and a few others.

For me this is all about Peralta getting back on track. He strikes out better than 12 Per 9 innings and has a 3/1K/BB ratio for his career. With that 7th best pitch in baseball he won’t be struggling for long.  Plus money Peralta, and a chance to do it full game with Milwaukee’s superior bullpen if they are behind is great. He won’t be getting odds like this much longer so lets take advantage now.

Brewers +104 1 Unit

Alternate Run Line Brewers -1.5 +165 – 1 Unit

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I’ve been betting sports since my old man starting having me fill out his parlay cards from the local watering hole when I was younger. 15+ Years dedicated experience betting MLB, NFL, CFB, CBB, and Horse Racing. My specialty is MLB where long hours grinding in daily fantasy leagues and compiling information naturally translated into picking out value on lines for baseball. I also focus on the Pac-12 and Mountain West as my family goes to bed early, and I like having action late at night at my chilly home in Wisconsin from September-March. Since 2019, The Records are - MLB, 670-662-17 +33.9 Units and 1.8% ROI. Other record since 2019 College Basketball 567-531-16 NFL 131-104-2, CFB 223-233-6. I love sharing my insight on sports with everyone, find me on Twitter @TheGreatKnoche and get all my premium picks here at TheOddsBreakers.com You can find my NCAA Basketball package now available for $400 for the entire season here. https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-levels/