I suffered an 0-2 Wednesday and have seen a dip in the MLB after a scorching hot start. With that said, this weekend presents a great opportunity to break out, and I’ve got 2 plays for tonight looking to do just that. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Mets TT OVER 4.5(+100) @ Diamondbacks–8:40 PM CT
The Mets(10-4) have started off the season hot at the plate. Entering tonight, they rank 3rd in batting average, 2nd in runs, and 8th in slugging. Against righties this season, they hold a well above-average .800 OPS, good for 4th in the league. They’ll face Zac Gallen for the second time in the same week. While Gallen threw 4 shutout innings at Citi Field last Saturday, he only struck out 2 Mets hitters. Gallen is a talented arm but has a history of inopportune walks and homers allowed, and he averaged just over 5 IP/start last year. That leaves the D-Backs bullpen getting tasked with more than they can handle, as they have a bottom 5 bullpen in the league. They also had to dig deep into that bullpen in their recent 4 game series in Washington, and they’ll have zero days of rest entering tonight. I’m going to play against the notion that Gallen is going to keep the Mets at bay twice in the same week, and I’m inclined to trust the Mets bats given how they’ve rounded into form this early in the season. I thought getting this at even money was a bargain.
*MLB(0.63u): Guardians F5 ML(+160) @ Yankees–6:05 PM CT
There are teams like the Yankees in every sport: well-known organization, history of success, but FAR too overvalued in the betting markets. The Yankees have been shut out twice in their past 4 games against the Orioles and Tigers, including in yesterday’s game in Detroit. For a lineup with so many big names, they hold just a .651 OPS against righties at this point in the season. Guardians SP Eli Morgan has been far better on the road up to this point in his career, and he has stepped up in his bigger starts. He threw 6 innings of 1 run ball in Yankee Stadium last year and saw many of his best starts come in spots against some of the league’s best offenses. The Guardians couldn’t come into this game in better current form as they just swept the White Sox in a 3 game set. The Guardians rank 2nd in the league in OPS against righties(.821) and will have their chances again tonight. Yankees SP Jameson Taillon is above average by my estimation, but he also gave up 1.5 HR/9 last season and struck out less than 9 hitters/9 innings. Cleveland pummeled a very similar type arm in Dylan Cease yesterday, and from what they’ve shown so far, I think they can keep it rolling into tonight. This price is far too high given how each team enters this matchup; I will take a shot with the ‘dog in the first 5 innings of this game to win a full unit.
