A 2-1, +1u Saturday made it back-to-back winning nights for me. I’ve got 3 plays for today looking to keep things rolling and get back in the green for the season. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Cardinals F5 TT OVER 2.5(+110) @ Reds–12:40 PM CT
The Cardinals will face lefty Nick Lodolo of Cincinnati today, a guy making just his 3rd career start. While Lodolo showed improvement in his last start, this is a way tougher matchup than this price would indicate. The Cardinals ranked 1st in OPS vs lefties last season and have excelled at an even higher rate against lefties this season(.914 OPS). Great American Ballpark heavily favors hitters, and we saw Lodolo get shelled by the Guardians in his only other start there this season. Why exactly are we getting this standard F5 TT at plus-money?
*MLB(1u): Angels F5 TT OVER 2.5(-120) vs Orioles–3:07 PM CT
Righty Chris Ellis will take the bump for the Orioles today. While Ellis has compiled a 1.82 ERA through 34.1 career innings, a 4.49 FIP(expected ERA) and 1.27 WHIP indicate that regression is coming in a major way. The Angels currently rank 3rd in OPS vs righties this year, and with Mike Trout back in the lineup, the top of this order should be able to feast early in this game. I’m hoping we can wrap this one up fairly quickly.
*MLB(1u): Athletics ML(-104) vs Rangers–3:07 PM CT
I won’t make betting on the A’s a habit this season, but I couldn’t pass them up at this price today. While the Rangers have won 3 straight(including 2 in Oakland), they are not built for sustained success. The Rangers pitching staff is atrocious, and that should be on full display today with Garrett Richards opening for Spencer Howard. I know the A’s lineup is very poor themselves, but if there were ever a “get right” matchup, this is it. Oakland SP Cole Irvin is a reliable lefty by estimation, and he’ll face a Rangers lineup that is severely top heavy. The A’s bullpen got significantly worse this offseason, but there is no way they could be any worse than Texas’s pen. I’m going to take a shot with the A’s today in an ultimate “buy low” spot.
