Nooooo! The streak ends! Ha, but it’s okay – that kind of winning can only go on so long in a game where we EXPECT to lose 43-45% of the time (which is kind of crazy, if you consider it that way). Good to be back on a damn computer sending out these premium pick emails. Sending out these long-ass messages on my phone with my dumb thumbs? Not fun.
Onto the picks!
NBA Picks:
- Celtics/Nets 1H over 107, 1.5 units
- This is a really hard game to handicap, as the line suggests, and we’ve seen minimal movement since it opened at Celtics -2.5. That being said, that’s more movement than we usually see in the playoffs. Staying away from the sides, but I like the first half to go over. As we know, Brooklyn will look to come out hot in an attempt to overwhelm Boston with their stellar offensive stars. The Nets have really struggled to make that happen. Boston has mostly kept them in check, but the degree of desperation tonight is higher than ever. Durant and Kyrie, who continue to have subpar games against this elite defense, will look to attack from the opening tipoff. I have the first half total at 108, but the added energy (and probably many fouls) should create points in the first 24 minutes. Truly, it’s Brooklyn’s only chance to win this game – they won’t win in by their defense, which is rather non-existent.
- Mavericks -3, 1.5 units
- This line is -2.5 at Circa if you can bet it, but it’s -3 at most books. Bottom line- the Mavs, back at home, against this Utah team that we can’t trust (that just look/feel different across the board), should be the best version of themselves now that Luka is warmed up. Luka had a solid game 4 but he missed a few clutch shots late in the 4th QTR. Expect Dallas to be more creative in those late game situations and I imagine they’ll do a MUCH better job at staying out of foul trouble, unlike in the last contest. I’ll trust the Mavericks 2nd half defense and a better Luka showing to overcome the Jazz and cover.
MLB Picks:
- Rockies/Phillies over 8.5, to win 1 unit
- The Phillies are coming off a 1-0 shutout loss to the Brewers last night and now they get Kyle Freeland, who permitted plenty of runs in their last contest just a few days ago, and the Rockies’ bats have been consistently effective. 8.5 is too low.
