Well it’s hard not to be pissed off after that Warriors’ game, but here are some of my observations:
- Klay makes 2 FTs, we cover. It’s really that simple.
- The refereeing was AWFUL at the end, embarrassing really.
- The Grizzlies played like the best version of themselves. While that’s impressive, I don’t expect that to continue. One or two more uppercuts from Golden State and this young team might crumble. Remember, Ja and his incredibly talented teammates are as green as it gets in these postseason scenarios. It’s a rare team that can overcome inexperience against such a well-coached, veteran team like the Warriors. The pendulum will swing again and I still believe we’ll have plenty of opportunities to cash on Golden State throughout this series.
- The pace of this game was quick (101.5 possessions), the shooting accuracy was disproportionately sky high at certain moments (especially in those 3rd QTR spurts), and Draymond Green was ejected – expect lower scoring games as this series goes on.
Onto a new week ! We’re 20-8 over the last 10 days, can’t hate that.
NBA Picks:
- 76ers TT under 99 (EVEN), 1 unit
- We already wrote about this but we’ll say it one more time here: No Embiid, the Heat are at home and we expect them to control the pace, a James Harden-led offense is one we hate, and oh yea, the Heat play really good defense. Most of their in-season games were very low scoring and this is a Heat team that held a potent-Hawks offense to under 100 points in 3/5 games of their previous series. I don’t think Philly scores easily in any regard tonight.
- Mavericks +5.5, 1.5 units and
- Mavs/Suns under 214.5, 1.5 units
- First, the Mavericks. I’ve been on this team since January and I still really like what I see: consistency on both ends of the floor, rising confidence from Luka’s supporting cast (how good has Brunson been, wow), a disciplined team that doesn’t make mistakes, and a half court defense that’s capable of truly shutting down elite offenses. This series will not come easy for Phoenix, who’s already showing some signs that they’re legs may be a bit wobbly this late in the season. CP3 is the man but he’s not a spring chicken, and I’m still not confident that playoff-Booker will perform at the same level as he did in the regular season. I capped this game at Suns -3; gotta take a +5.5. Let’s see if the market moves this any today, but from our purview this number looks pretty locked in. PS – it’s +6 currently at Circa; get that if you can.
- Onto the total: these two teams only eclipsed 210 in only 1 out of their 3 games in the regular season. They’re both slower paced, Luka is healthy which means Dallas will slow down even more, and both units play incredible defense. This might be a stretch to reach 200 – I have it at 209.
MLB Picks:
- Angels/White Sox under 8, 1.1 units to win 1
- Two teams coming off a high-scoring game with elite pitchers slated for today; this feels like a great spot for regression. I expect a molasses-like output from these two lineups as Sandoval (1-0, 0.00 ERA over 15 IP) and Cease (3.27 ERA, 1.18 WHIP over 22 IP) should command with ease.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
Always appreciate all of you! -Chris
