Oliveira/Gaethje over 2.5 rounds (+125), 1 unit
At this point both of these seasoned fighters understand how dangerous their opponent is. Both have the ability to end this fight early, but with the amount of respect they have for one another, I don’t see how they don’t approach it cautiously. That should eliminate round 1 and give us a buffer heading into round 2. Things tend to pick up in championship fights after the 2nd round, so I wouldn’t bet beyond that, but I love this to go further than the books expect.
Chandler/Ferguson goes the distance (+150), 1.5 units
If there’s one thing we know about Tony Ferguson, it’s that he’s really, really tough for any opponent to figure out. Despite being out of the octagon for a year, Tony has no shortage of confidence heading into this fight with one of the best lightweights to ever do it. Chandler is known for his superior wrestling ability, and obviously he could catch Ferguson at some point and score a submission or TKO – Chandler’s athleticism and explosiveness is insane. But I’d rather bet on a proven angle that we’ve seen occur so many times in Ferguson fights. “El Cucuy” (aka the boogeyman) is Ferguson’s nickname for a reason. He’s slithery, unpredictable, and incredibly resilient. And even though he’s on a 3-fight losing streak, look who he lost against: Dariush, Oliveira, and Gaethje – the best of the best. I think we see a fantastic fight here and Ferguson gives Chandler everything he can handle.
Norma Dumont by 3 Round Decision (-105), 1 unit
Dumont is a dynamic Brazilian striker with plenty of tools to overwhelm Chiasson throughout the contest. She’s only lost 1 fight and most of her wins, like most female fighters, have come by decision. This is a quality line for that result.
Melissa Gatto wins inside distance (+350), 1/2 unit
I may have a little bias here because Gatto has a pretty face, but don’t be fooled by her looks; this chick is aggressive and all of her last 3 wins have come before the final bell. Capable of beating her opponents in myriad ways, Gatto is undefeated in her pro career and I’m not sure Cortez should be favored. This should not be +350 so let’s take advantage.
