Free pick time! The NBA Playoffs are going well for your boy – we’re 36-27 (57%) for +10 units, which is consistent with our career regular season record (490-375, 57%). Let’s grab another W today!
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Mavs 1H -2 (-110), 1.1 units: To put it lightly and at the risk of an immediate pun, the Suns have been ON FIRE. Let’s look at some of their marks to start off this article, because it’s been just a little bit insane:
- 57.5% from the field average in games 1 and 2
- 45% three-point percentage in games 1 and 2
- 85-61 rebound advantage over two games
- 55-35 assist advantage over two games
- 88-76 points in the paint advantage over two games
Yea, they’ve been dominant. Dallas showed signs of life in the first halves of both games, but the Suns continue to find a way to adjust and overwhelm the Mavericks in the last 24 minutes. And all their key players have contributed: Ayton, Booker, and Paul have all put on great performances in the first 2 contests, and players like Crowder, Bridges, Johnson and Payne have been money as their supporting cast.
We can’t say the same for Dallas’ supporting cast, and we think that’s the biggest difference so far in this series. Jalen Brunson has been a huge catalyst for the Mavericks’ success in their first series against Utah. Brunson averaged 28 ppg and shot 48% from the field in 6 games. That’s nothing new – he’s been stellar since January. So far against the Suns, he’s averaging 11 ppg at a hit rate of only 31% over two games. Not good, but there’s hope. At home, Brunson averages 50% from the field and 34% from beyond the arc; we think he can replicate some of those numbers tonight.
Other players like Spencer Dinwiddie and Dorian Finney-Smith, who all but disappeared in game two, haven’t helped. Luka Doncic is brilliant and he’s easily one of the most talented players in the NBA. He leads his team in all major categories – points, rebounds, and assists, and he’s almost the sole reason why they’ve stayed competitive in the first halves of games one and two. But he can’t do it alone.
The Mavericks found success in the final 4 months of the regular season by playing methodical, mistake-free team basketball, and they definitely perform better on their home floor (31-13 straight up this season). The Suns are the more experienced and better overall team, we have little doubt about that, but we also don’t think there’s that big of a disparity. If there was, why would this be a pick-em full game? We’ll take the Mavs to conquer early and look more like the team we loved heading into the postseason.
