Kentucky Derby Preview & Picks – May 7th, 2022

May 7, 2022

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The 148th running of the Kentucky Derby takes place today at Churchill Downs. The Kentucky Derby is the first leg of the American Triple Crown of horse racing. It is historically run on the first Saturday in May. First run in 1875, this 1 1/4 mile—or 10 furlongs—race runs on the dirt track at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, where it has been held since its inaugural running in 1875.

Race Information:

Track: Churchill Downs (Louisville, KY, USA)
Event Grade: Grade I
Race: 12
Post Time: 6:57 PM ET
Length: 1 1/4 Mile
Purse: $3,000,000
Division: Open | Three Years Old
Surface: Dirt
Wagers: Daily Double/ Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 12-14) / Super Hi-5

TV Schedule:

USA Network – 12:00 PM – 2:30 PM ET
NBC – 2:30 PM – 7:30 PM ET

Field:

PP	Horse	Odds
1	Mo Donegal	10-1
2	Happy Jack	30-1
3	Epicenter	7-2
4	Summer is Tomorrow	30-1
5	Smile Happy	20-1
6	Messier	8-1
7	Crown Pride	20-1
8	Charge It	20-1
9	Tiz the Bomb	30-1
10	Zandon	3-1
11	Pioneer of Medina	30-1
12	Taiba	12-1
13	Simplification	20-1
14	Barber Road	30-1
15	White Abarrio	10-1
16	Cyberknife	20-1
17	Classic Causeway	30-1
18	Tawny Point	30-1
19	Zozos	20-1
20	~~Ethereal Road~~	~~30-1~~
21	Rich Strike	30-1

Horse Preview:

Mo Donegal

Owner: Donegal Racing
Trainer: Todd A Pletcher
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Odds: 10-1

Mo Donegal enters the Kentucky Derby fresh off a win in the G2 Wood Memorial Stakes two weeks. In terms of speed figures that was his best race so far which is an encouraging sign. Joel Rosario was the jockey on him in that race, but Irad Ortiz Jr will return to the reins in the Derby. Irad Ortiz has ridden Mo Donegal three times before finishing inside the money in every one of those races. In addition to the G2 Wood Memorial Stakes, Mo Donegal has also won the G2 Remsen Stakes and G3 Holy Bull Stakes.

Happy Jack

Owner: Calumet Farms
Trainer: Doug F O’ Neill
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Odds: 30-1

Happy Jack has four starts to his name, all coming this year. In those four starts, he has only won one of those races. That win came back in his debut where he won a $67k Maiden Special Weight. Since breaking his maiden, he has entered three graded stakes finishing inside the money twice. In his last race, he finished 3^rd in the G1 Santa Anita Derby losing to Derby favorites Talba and Messier. He went off at 25-1 in that race and never stood a chance of winning sneaking up late to grab third down the stretch. Prior to that race, he finished second in the G2 San Felipe Stakes and G3 RB Lewis Stakes. Rafael Bejarano will get the nod for the first time on Happy Jack as A Cedillo has ridden him in the previous four races.

Epicenter

Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds
Trainer: Steven Asmussen
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Odds: 7-2

Epicenter enters the race as one of the morning line favorites and deservedly so. He has won his last two races, the G2 Louisiana Derby and G2 Risen Star Stakes. In his six career starts, he won four of them and finished second once. The only time he finished outside the money was in his debut where he ran 6^th. Oddly enough his speed figures haven’t been great as he haven’t impressive as he has yet to break 100 in Equibase speed figures.

Summer is Tomorrow

Owner: Michael Hilary and Negar Burke
Trainer: Bhupat Seemar
Jockey: Mickael Barzalona
Odds: 30-1

Summer is Tomorrow is coming off a 2^nd place finish in the UAE Derby where he was beaten by fellow Derby entrant Crown Pride. Prior to that race he was primarily a sprinter but seemed to handle the additional distance well. He has seven starts to his name finishing first twice and second three times.

Smile Happy

Owner: Lucky Seven Stable
Trainer: Kenneth G McPeek
Jockey: Corey J Lanerie
Odds: 20-1

Smile Happy finished 2^nd in the G2 Blue Grass Stakes in his last out losing to a morning line favorite, Zandon. Prior to that race, he ran 2^nd in the G2 Risen Star Stakes losing to another one of the morning line favorites, Epicenter. He’s increased in distance the past two races from 1 1/16 to 1/8 Miles and seemed to handle the distance much better in his last start. Corey Lanerie will remain on Smile Happy and he has ridden him in all four of his career starts. In his career, he has finished inside the money in every race finishing first and second twice.

Messier

Owner: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, LLC, …
Trainer: Tim Yakteen
Jockey: John R Velazquez
Odds: 8-1

Messier, named after 5 times Stanley Cup winner Mark Messier enters this race off a 2^nd place finish in the G1 Santa Anita Derby. He lost to Zandon, who’s another morning line favorite. Prior to that race, he won he G3 RB Lewis Stakes. In his two other stakes races, he finished 2^nd in the G2 Los and 1stin the G3 Bob Hope Stakes. He raced extremely well when he won the G3 RB Lewis Stakes but struggled a bit in his last outing. He has the speed to compete here and if he can repeat his performance in that race, he certainly has a shot to win.

Crown Pride (JPN)

Owner: Teruya Yoshida
Trainer: Koichi Shintani
Jockey: Christophe Lemaire
Odds: 20-1

Crown Pride is coming off an impressive win in the G2 UAE Derby where he defeated fellow entrant Summer is Tomorrow. He has four starts to his name, winning three of those races and finishing outside the money in one of them. In that lone start, he didn’t finish in the top 3, the track conditions were less than ideal. This is an impressive horse that can handle the distance but will have a new jockey on him in the Derby.

Charge It

Owner: Whisper Hill Farm
Trainer: Todd A Pletcher
Jockey: Luis Saez
Odds: 20-1

Charge It, has only raced three times in his short career but has shown that he has the speed to compete in this race. He finished 2^nd in the G1 Florida Derby in his last start which is the only graded stakes race that he’s competed in. In that race, he struggled getting out of the gate but still made a late charge to run second. Prior to that race, he finished 1^st and 2^nd in a $60k Maiden Special Weight.

Tiz the Bomb

Owner: Magdalena Racing
Trainer: Kenneth G McPeek
Jockey: Brian J Hernandez, Jr
Odds: 30-1

Tiz the Bomb, has the most experience out of any horse in this race along with Barber Road, with eight starts in his career. He’s won his last two races which include the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes and John Battaglia Memorial Stakes. In the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes he defeated fellow entrant Tawny Port and Rich Strike, who ran 2^nd and 3^rd respectively. In that race, he showed some speed which he hasn’t displayed since November of last year when he finished 2^nd in the G1 BC Juvenile Turf. Brian Hernandez Jr will get the mount, a horse he has ridden several times before, so he should be comfortable on him.

Zandon

Owner: Jeff Drown
Trainer: Chad C Brown
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Odds: 3-1

Zandon, enters the race as one of the morning line favorites and is coming off a nice win in the G1 Blue Grass Stakes. He was very impressive in that race with a 107 Equibase Speed Figure and won by over two lengths. In his four career starts, he has never finished outside the money. He’s raced in two other graded stakes races, the G2 Risen Star and G2 Remsen, where he ran 3^rd and 2^nd respectively. Out of all the horses in the field, he is the only one to have captured a G1 Stakes.

Pioneer of Medina

Owner: Sumaya U. S. Stables
Trainer: Todd A Pletcher
Jockey: Joe Bravo
Odds: 30-1

Pioneer of Medina, has failed to win both of the grades stakes races he’s entered. In both of those races, he lost to Epicenter so unless something changes, I don’t think he can beat him here. His last win comes back in January when he won a $50k Allowance Optional Claimer at Fairgrounds. His workouts have been encouraging coming into the Derby but I just don’t see him competing here as he lacks the speed needed.

Taiba

Owner: Zedan Racing Stables
Trainer: Tim Yakteen
Jockey: Mike E Smith
Odds: 12-1

Taiba, enters the Kentucky Derby with the least experience out of any horse, but is also the only horse that’s undefeated. He has two starts to his name winning the G1 Santa Anita Derby in his last out. He broke his maiden back in March of this year, winning a Maiden Special Weight at Santa Anita. Despite the lack of experience, this horse has shown that he can compete in this race. He handled the distance well in the SA Derby and has had some great workouts.

Simplification

Owner: Tami Bobo and Tristan de Marc
Trainer: Antonio Sano
Jockey: Jose L Ortiz
Odds: 20-1

Simplification, is coming off a 3^rd place finish in the Florida Derby where he lost to fellow entrants White Abarrio and Charge It. He ran one of his best races, in that start but just couldn’t beat them down the stretch. Prior to that race, he won the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes winning by over three lengths. Ortiz has been on the mount in those past two races and will retain the reigns here. His last few workouts have been good but again, just not sure he has the speed needed.

Barber Road

Owner: WSS Racing, LLC
Trainer: John Alexander Cruz
Jockey: Reylu Gutierrez
Odds: 30-1

Barber Road, is one of the most experienced horses in this race but has failed to find the winners circle since November 2021. However, in those five races following that win, he has finished 2^nd four times and third once. He did run well in his last outing in the G1 Arkansas Derby losing to Cyberknife. Just like several other horses in this race, I don’t see him competing due to his lack if speed and his previous experience against the favorites.

White Abarrio

Owner: C2 Racing Stable, LLC and LA Milagrosa
Trainer: Saffie A Joseph, Jr
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Odds: 10-1

White Abarrio, has won his past two races which includes the G1 Florida Debry and the G3 Holy Bull Stakes. In those races, he defeated several other Derby entrants including Charge It, Simplification, and Mo Donegal. He’s recently shown some speed this year that we haven’t seen before which is extremely encouraging. His workouts have been phenomenal as of late and with Tyler Gaffalione aboard, he’s undefeated.

Cyberknife

Owner: Gold Square, LLC
Trainer: Brad H Cox
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Odds: 20-1

Cyberknife, is another horse that enters the Derby in great form, winning his past two races. In his last start he won the G1 Arkansas Derby defeating Barber Road. He did enter a graded stakes prior to that one where he ran 6^th in the G3 Lecomte Stakes. Besides that race, he has finished inside the money in all six career starts.

Classic Causeway

Owner: Kentucky West Racing, LCC and Clarke M. Cooper
Trainer: Brian A Lynch
Jockey: Julien R Leparoux
Odds: 30-1

Classic Causeway, has won tow of his last three starts. During that stretch of races, he won the G2 Tampa Bay Derby, and the G3 Sam F Davis Stakes but finished 11^th in his last race in the G1 Florida Derby. He set the pace in that race but gave way down the stretch and was never pressed. It’ll be interesting to see how he does after that performance. Prior to that race, his last two we’re extremely encouraging and looked to able to compete in this race. At 30-1, he’s definitely work a look in exotic bets.

Tawny Port

Tawny Port, will make his first appearance in a grade one stakes. He has raced in three graded stakes prior, finishing 1^st in the G3 Lexington Stakes, 2^nd in the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes, and 5^th in the G2 Risen Star Stakes. Tawny Port will have Ricardo Santana on the mount who’s riding this horse for the first time.

Zozos

Owner: Barry and Joni Butzow
Trainer: Brad H Cox
Jockey: Manuel Franco
Odds: 30-1

Zozos, has adjusted well to the additional distances as indicated by his last two races. He’s coming off a 2^nd place finish in the G2 Louisiana Derby where he ran second to Epicenter. In that race he ran his best speed figure and will need to improve on that to have a chance here. That 2^nd place finish was his lone second place of his career as he won his two races before then.

Rich Strike

Owner: RED TR-Racing, LLC
Trainer: Eric Reed
Jockey: Sonny Leon
Odds: 30-1

Rich Strike, gets the call as Ethereal Road is a late scratch. He has yet to win a race since September 2021 and has only competed in one graded stakes in his career which was his last race. In that race he finished 3^rd in the G3 Lexington Stakes. Fellow entrants Tiz the Bomb and Tawny Port finished 1-2. His speed has been improving in each race but I’m just not sure if he competes here especially given his post position.

Picks:

I just want to preface this as it does affect my picks for the Derby. The weather isn’t looking all that great. It’s expected to rain in the morning so I’m not sire we’re going to get picture perfect conditions. The track won’t be muddy but the front runners will have a slight advantage in this race.

TO WIN:

(12) TAIBA
- Taiba doesn’t have a ton of experience but he has proven he’s proven he’s a major contender in just two races. If the weather is bad, it shouldn’t affect him as he does like to run near the front. The issue is that he has raced in small fields so we’ll see how he handles nineteen other runners.
(5) SMILE HAPPY
- Smile Happy, has lost to Zandon and Epicenter in the past two races. However, he hasn’t been blown out losing by two lengths in each of those races. He’s one of the younger colts in this race but given his pedigree I think he offers the best longshot odds.

EXACTA BOX: