Here are my quick thoughts on every horse in the 148th run for the Roses and the greatest two minutes in sports. My card will be out later this morning to pick apart.
1. Moe Donegal 10-1 – Closer and closed well in the Wood Memorial, but I hate the number one spot especially for closers in a big field. Back end use makes sense.
2. Happy Jack 30-1 – Trainer Doug O’Neill has won the Kentucky Derby twice, but this horse has no chance. I will be happy to toss this horse off of my card.
3. Epicenter 3.5-1 – Epicenter keeps improving. He has won 4 of his last 5 races including the Louisiana derby with ease. Epicenter looks like he can go the longer 1 & 1/4 distance, and he has beaten some of the competition here already. Steven Asmussen gets his first Derby win. Front to back end use.
4. Summer is tomorrow 30-1 – Foreign horses haven’t done well in the derby for at least the last 22 years. Is there a prop for finishing last? Toss him today if you want a nice tomorrow.
5. Smile Happy 20-1 – He seems to have some speed, but I don’t think this horse gets the distance. I have to use him but not high up. Back end most likely.
6. Messier 8-1 – This was a Baffert horse and he has some high speed figures. He did fall late to Taiva, and I am concerned that this horse can’t get the distance; or was that a conspiracy to get the other Baffert horse Taiva into the derby? I re-watched it and it does look like Messier could have held back some at the end. Use top down.
7. Crown Pride 20-1 – Since 2000, the UAE Derby has produced 16 Kentucky Derby starters and none has finished better than fifth (Master of Hounds in 2011). Very end or toss.
8. Charge It 20-1 – Hit the gate in the Florida derby and Luis Saez also made a bad move down the final stretch. This horse should have won it in my opinion. I have to use this horse top down for the price.
9. Tiz the Bomb 30-1 – This horse is properly named because if he hits the board, he will blow up my whole card. Nearly all of his success has come on different surfaces. He did win a one-mile maiden race on dirt at Ellis Park last July but finished seventh in his other two starts on dirt. Probably a full toss but maybe the back end.
10. Zandon 3-1 – I don’t understand this horses odds. He clearly lost in February to Epicenter and Smile Happy. He looked great at Keenland at the blue grass, but those fractions were very very slow which made the race a little strange. Part of his price is due to the announcer at the Bluegrass and how excited he sounded when Zandon came from behind to win. He is a closer, so I have to use him in this longer race, but I haven’t decided if I want him at the top sharing with Epicenter and 1 other or not. I also do not like that the field is so big and could cause him problems from the back. At least middle down for sure.
11. Pioneer of Medina 30-1 – Decent horse but nothing special. I do like Pletcher but this horse has been dominated twice by Epicenter and both horses starting with Z. He won’t stand up to the competition here. Back end at best but maybe a toss.
12. Taiba 12-1 – The better of the Yakfort bunch? Not a ton of experience and only two career starts, but boy did this horse show some speed winning the Santa Anita derby. It’s been since the 1883 that a horse with only two races have won this thing. I have to think that Mike Smith is on this horse for a reason and if Messier can’t close, he might be the one to get it done in a good post position. I will have to use this horse from the top to the bottom based on his price, his breeding, and his estranged trainer.
13. Simplification 20-1 – This horse seemed to have peaked back in March winning the Fountain of youth, but he has never left Gulfstream and could never get past White Abarrio. Simply toss him off of your card.
14. Barber Road 30-1 – If this horse places, I might just go and visit a barber and have them shave my head! Back end at best.
15. White Abarrio 10-1 – This horse has speed and has done very well winning four out of his five races. His only loss came at Churchill Downs which is the scary thing. Do you know what else is scary? This horse wasn’t the best at the Florida Derby, and I think Charge It is better. Back end is probably the best play.
16. Cyberknife 20-1 – This horse is my sleeper and you have to like how his speed figures have gotten better and better since his last bad race. Brad Cox is a great trainer, and this horse won the Arkansas Derby with ease. I’ll use him from the Top down.
17. Classic Causeway 30-1 – This horse never got past 90 Beyers speed figures and he took 11th in his last race. The only cause that I have is to toss him off of my card.
18. Tawny Port 30-1 – I do not have much faith in this horse and when he stepped up against good competition in the Risen, he faltered bad. I also do not think that this horse gets the distance. Tawny Toss him off of your card.
19. Zozos 20-1 – He did get easily beaten by Epicenter in the Louisiana derby, but he looked like he could do some damage if something crazy happens. Inexperienced horse with only three races, but I could be talked into at least a middle position and down here.
20. SCRATCHED – Ethereal Road 30-1 – Finished 7th and 4th in his last two races. This horse never had a Beyers faster than 84. I feel like I am falling asleep just talking about this horse.
21. Rich Strike 30-1 – This horse hasn’t won since September of 2021 and has never had a Beyer past 84. You won’t strike it rich with him on your card. Toss.
