Premiums, 5.16 and NBA Game 1s

Celtics win series 4-3 (+550) – We think the Heat will win game 1 so that pushes this to 7 games since we expect them to win 2 or 3 at home and probably one really tough game on the road. The Celtics are the better team, but I would not be surprised if Miami won. They’re still very underrated.

I lean the Heat because they have considerably more rest, they’re at home, and they’re so good as underdogs (which they are in this series). They also didn’t experience the same level of physicality that Boston just endured. That being said, defense will still dominate this series. Two slow teams, two defenses that are exceptional against half-court sets, and both teams’ best shooters will be challenged and contested at every turn. As a hedge of sorts, I like the Heat to succeed more than Boston’s offense, principally because of the home court advantage and added rest, but overall this should be a low-scoring game. If you don’t like the full game under, consider taking Miami TT over – there’s a good chance we see the best version of Miami against a lethargic version of Boston.

These two squads are built very similarly. Dallas has an insane ability to slow down the pace of these games early – we saw that in many of the Suns/Mavs contests and it should work even better against the small-ball offense of Golden State. Plus let’s be honest, the Warriors seem to always start slow and finish great, especially when they’re not extensively motivated. Love the first quarter to start slow and I don’t think either of these defenses will have much issue slowing down the other team. They match up well – Draymond vs. Luka, Brunson vs. Curry, etc. Look to live bet an under if the game starts fast and get used to a lot less points in both of these series. These defenses should thrive, and because we expect slow, defense-oriented games, we can’t not take Dallas after that massively impressive win at Phoenix.

This is about as lopsided a matchup as there is, and the Rays are at home behind Kluber, who will continue to positively regress in our opinion. Detroit “winning streaks” don’t last.

The Orioles had a good time against Severino in their last battle and when Baltimore is at home against their rival, they have a reckless abandon about them that tells us they have little fear. Lots of power hits expected today. Hopefully it doesn’t get rained out.

I’m going to need to see more from Garrett Whitlock to start trusting him as a dependable Boston starter. Odorizzi has plenty of experience and improving command – I’ll go with the better team on the road.

Two teams who allowed way too many hits and slugs one game ago head into this contest at Coors Field so naturally it’s going to soar over, right? We don’t think so. Senzatela has been solid in command at home in his career and Alex Wood can handle the task just as well. This flies under.