Fun day of MLB betting, huh? (EYE ROLL) Onto Tuesday, onto more NBA, onto more wins, and fuck a zany Monday in baseball. Added a play on the Heat.
NBA Futures
Celtics win series 4-3 (+550) – We think the Heat will win game 1 so that pushes this to 7 games since we expect them to win 2 or 3 at home and probably one really tough game on the road. The Celtics are the better team, but I would not be surprised if Miami won. They’re still very underrated.
NBA Picks (Game 1s):
Heat ML (-125), 1 unit
Celtics/Heat under 204.5, 1.5 units
I’m pulling the trigger on Miami. The Heat because they have considerably more rest, they’re at home, and they’re very good as underdogs (which they are in this series). They also didn’t experience the same level of physicality that Boston just endured. That being said, defense will still dominate this series. Two slow teams, two defenses that are exceptional against half-court sets, and both teams’ best shooters will be challenged and contested at every turn. As a hedge of sorts, I like the Heat to succeed more than Boston’s offense, principally because of the home court advantage and added rest, but overall this should be a low-scoring game. If you don’t like the full game under, consider taking Miami TT over – there’s a good chance we see the best version of Miami against a lethargic version of Boston.
Mavericks +5.5, 1.5 units
Mavericks/Warriors 1Q under 53.5, 1.5 units
These two squads are built very similarly. Dallas has an insane ability to slow down the pace of these games early – we saw that in many of the Suns/Mavs contests and it should work even better against the small-ball offense of Golden State. Plus let’s be honest, the Warriors seem to always start slow and finish great, especially when they’re not extensively motivated. Love the first quarter to start slow and I don’t think either of these defenses will have much issue slowing down the other team. They match up well – Draymond vs. Luka, Brunson vs. Curry, etc. Look to live bet an under if the game starts fast and get used to a lot less points in both of these series. These defenses should thrive, and because we expect slow, defense-oriented games, we can’t not take Dallas after that massively impressive win at Phoenix.
MLB Picks:
Dodgers (Game 1) -1.5 (EVEN), 1 unit to win 1
The Dodgers will start Ryan Pepiot, who had a great showing in his first time on the mound, or it’ll be a bullpen game. LAD, a historically great team at home, has been playing these Dodger Stadium contests a little too close. That changes today. There’s a chance this line rises and gives even more + money if you want for the pitching announcement, but I’m not gifted enough in predicting MLB lines just yet, so I’m taking it now.
Reds first 5 +0.5 (-115), 1.15 units to win 1
Overton has been solid in 17 innings and Plesac just keeps getting whacked, showing no real signs of improving command. I’ll take the God-awful Reds to beat the frustrating af Indians.
Giants/Rockies under 11.5 (-115), 1.65 units to win 1.5
Remember when we lost the over last night even though neither team could score halfway through the contest? Same. That sucked. I’m taking another shot, though. Kuhl got exposed last time against San Francisco but he’s been really solid and I expect at least some positive regression, while Cobb was stellar in his last start against Colorado.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
Always appreciate all of you! -Chris
