I started the week out with a 1-1, +0.33u night and am now up over 8 units over the past 8 days. I’ve got 3 MLB plays for today looking to keep things rolling. If you’d like to receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group! I will also be live at 1:15 PM CT on Twitter and YouTube talking over today’s slate.
*MLB(1u): Guardians -1.5(+125) vs Reds–5:10 PM CT
The Reds showed signs of life early last week during their home stand, but over the weekend, they put up just 1 run combined on Saturday and Sunday on the road against the measly Pirates pitching staff. Tonight, Zach Plesac will take the hill for the Guardians in a dream matchup. Plesac’s numbers this year are not inspiring, but he’s also had to face the White Sox(twice), Angels, Giants, and Padres already. I haven’t given up hope on Plesac yet, and given he’s always pitched better at home, I like him to break out against a Reds lineup that ranks dead last in OPS on the road. Reds SP Connor Overton has looked sharp in 3 starts this year, but I don’t think his sub-2.00 ERA is sustainable. The Guardians’ numbers are a bit misleading, but they still hold the clear advantage offensively. Given Overton’s 36% hard contact rate, the Guardians should have plenty of opportunities to strike big tonight. A big reason I felt comfortable laying the run-and-a-half is the massive bullpen discrepancy between these two clubs. The Guardians have a top 5 bullpen in baseball, while the Reds bullpen holds a 1.43 WHIP, which ranks 2nd to last in the league. I think those numbers will hold true throughout the rest of the season. I like Cleveland to take care of business at home tonight.
*MLB(1u): Rockies TT OVER 4.5(-130) vs Giants–7:40 PM CT
*MLB(0.71u): Rockies F5 ML(+140) vs Giants–7:40 PM CT
The Rockies are averaging over 6 runs/game at home this season, so the fact we’re getting a 4.5 on their team total is a bit perplexing to me. Giants SP Alex Cobb has looked sharp this year, but this will be his second straight start against this Rockies lineup, a situation I believe heavily favors the opposing lineup. Cobb has also made 4 of his 5 starts at home this year; Oracle Park plays to his style nicely. However, Cobb held a 5.44 ERA and 1.52 ERA on the road last year and was roughed up by the Mets in his lone road start this year. The Rockies hold an OPS above .800 vs righties at Coors Field this season, and they’ll also face a Giants bullpen that has massively underperformed this year. I don’t love laying -130, but 4.5 is simply the wrong number.
I’m also going to play on the Rockies in the F5 at a glorious +140 price. Rockies SP Chad Kuhl has looked very sharp in his 2 starts at Coors this season, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that holds true this year given the Rockies seem to fill their rotation with guys who can handle the burden of pitching in Colorado. While Kuhl will also face the Giants for the second straight time, the fact Cobb finds himself in the same boat negates any advantage the Giants may have. You have to price the Rockies like a top of the line team when they’re at home, and that’s just not occurring with this number. I don’t want to trust the Rockies bullpen that ranks dead last in the league in WHIP, so I’ll isolate the F5 ML to win us a full unit.
