I come into the new week +10.5u over the last 14 days and am rolling with 2 MLB plays for tonight looking to start us off strong. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Cubs/Reds OVER 9(-110)–5:40 PM CT
While the Reds have had a well-publicized poor start to this season, the one role they have excelled in offensively is against left-handed pitching in their home ballpark; they rank 5th in OPS(.751) against lefties at home. Cubs SP Drew Smyly carries a 1.38 WHIP into tonight’s start, and considering he held a 1.37 WHIP last year, that seems to be on brand for this below average lefty arm. Smyly is also allowing 1.59 HR/9 this year and now faces the task of pitching in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the league. The Cubs bullpen even being average has been a surprise, but I do not expect that to withstand the test of time. However, the Cubs are also salivating over their matchup against Reds SP Vladimir Gutierrez, who carries a brutal 8.65 ERA and 1.96 WHIP into tonight’s start. While it’s hard to sustain those bad of numbers throughout a whole season, a FIP at 7.52 is a strong indicator that Gutierrez is one of the worst SP’s in the league. As a kicker, Gutierrez has fared much worse at home throughout his brief career. While I categorize the Cubs offense as below average, they did score 16 runs across their 3 game set this weekend against the Diamondbacks. They’ll match up with another brutal bullpen in Cincinnati after Gutierrez is finished, so the path to runs is clear for Chicago tonight. Given the quality of this pitching matchup(including bullpens) and the favorable hitting conditions, I’ll play this one over the total.
*MLB(1u): Cardinals ML(-120) vs Blue Jays–6:45 PM CT
The Cardinals did some serious damage over the weekend in Pittsburgh; aside from picking up the sweep over the Pirates, they capped things off with an 18-4 thumping in yesterday’s game. Now, they’ll return back home and face a Blue Jays team that is still overvalued in the betting markets. While the Blue Jays held some of the best offensive numbers in the league last year, this has simply been a below average offense in 2022. Over the weekend, they managed to put up only 7 runs against a putrid Reds pitching staff, and overall this year, the Jays rank just 21st in OPS against right-handed pitching. Cardinals SP Miles Mikolas probably won’t be able to sustain a sub-2.00 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP over the course of this season, but he’s catching the Jays lineup at an opportune time. Blue Jays SP Jose Berrios looks like a shell of his former self this year. Aside from the 4.83 ERA and 1.49 WHIP, Berrios is striking out just 6.15 per 9 innings, BY FAR the lowest mark of his career. Unluckily for him, the Cardinals have the second highest contact rate against righties in the league. When you pair that with the fact the Cardinals enter tonight in great current form, this shapes up to be another rough outing for Berrios. I see these bullpens as about even, but the Cardinals have a pretty significant rest advantage by nature of not having to use any back-end arms in yesterday’s blowout. I like this matchup for St. Louis and have no problem playing against a Jays team that has yet to crack the code offensively this year.
