Justin Thomas pulled off an improbable comeback on Sunday to capture the PGA Championship after having just a 1.2% chance of winning heading into the final round. Mito Pereira just need to par 18 in order to win but, would end up putting his drive in the water and making double bogey. With that we had a three hole aggregate playoff between Justin Thomas and Will Zalatoris, with JT coming out victorious. If you had Mito last week I’m truly sorry as the was an awful loss.
In terms of our card we wound up finishing +0.06 units which isn’t great but given our position going into Sunday, I’ll take it. We just missed out on Shane Lowry Top 20 with him finishing T23.
We now head to Fort Worth, Texas for the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club. It’s a solid field that should make for some exciting golf. The course itself is challenging despite it’s length. I’ll breakdown the event and offer a few picks this week, lets get into it.
Tournament Information:
- Dates: May 26th, 2022 – May 29th, 2022
- Location: Fort Worth, Texas, United States
- Course: Colonial Country Club
- Course Type: Parkland
- Par: 70 (4x 3’s / 12x 4’s / 2x 5’s)
- Length: 7,209 yards
- Format: 72 hole stroke play
- Field/ Cut: 120 Players | Top 65 and Ties after 36 Holes
- Greens: Bentgrass
- Fairways: Bermudagrass
- Rough: Bermudagrass 3.00″
- Stimpmeter: 12.0
- Purse: $8,400,000 / Winner $1,512,000
- FedEx Cup Points: 500
- Bunkers: 84
- Water Hazards: 3 (In-Play on 6 Holes)
- Average Green Size: 5,000 sq. ft.
- Scoring Average:
- 2021: 70.21 (+0.21), Rank 18 of 51
- 2020: 69.57 (-0.43), Rank 13 of 41
- 2019: 70.86 (+0.86), Rank 7 of 49
Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:
- Course Architect: John Bredemus & Perry Maxwell (1936)
- Renovation: Keith Foster (2008)
- Comparable Courses:
TV Information:
- Round 1: Thursday, May 26th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
- Round 2: Friday, May 27th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
- Round 3: Saturday, May 28th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 5:30 PM ET
- CBS – 5:30 PM – 7:00 PM ET
- Round 4: Sunday, May 29th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 2:00 PM ET
- CBS – 2:00 PM – 6:30 PM ET
- Thursday: Sunny 74 F, 14 mp/h WNW, 44% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
- Friday: Sunny 78 F, 8 mp/h E, 47% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
- Saturday: Sunny 84 F, 20 mp/h SSE, 51% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
- Sunday: Sunny/Wind 85 F, 22 mp/h S, 49% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
Course/ Tournament History:
The tournament was founded 76 years ago in 1946. It’s the longest-running non-major on TOUR to be contested on the same course. The Charles Schwab Corporation became the title sponsor of the event for a four-year deal starting in 2019.
The course hosted the U.S. Open in 1941, the U.S. Women’s Open in 1991, and the second edition of THE PLAYERS. Like Southern Hills, Colonial is another Maxwell design that is set to undergo a Gil Hanse renovation. It was scheduled for this year but due to supply chain issues, the process will begin after the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge.
The Charles Schwab Challenge is one of five tournaments to be given “invitational” status by the PGA Tour. With this “invitational” status the field is reduced to 120 and a larger purse.
Colonial also has a unique tradition known as the Champion’s choice in which the former champions select two deserving young players, who otherwise would be ineligible, to compete in the tournament. In addition to the $1.5 million dollar purse the winner also receives an official Scottish tartan plaid jacket.
Most tournament wins: Ben Hogan (5); 1946, 1947, 1952, 1953, 1959
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Colonial Country Club is a Par 70 course that plays just over 7,200 yards. The course itself isn’t that long as it ranks around Tour average. However, it does have other aspects that make it one of the tougher courses on Tour as seen by the historic scoring averages.
Accuracy off the tee will be one of the main paths to success this week at Colonial. Most of the fairways are extremely narrow and tree lined. The bombers will not have the advantage that we saw last week at Southern Hill. Setting up your approach shots will be crucial this week as these greens rank 7th smallest on Tour. Greens in Regulation will be a key stat that you also want to look at this week. Putting is also something to note as five of the past six winners ranked 10th or better in SG: Putting for the week.
In terms of the course, we see a majority of the Par 4’s play between 400-450 yards. The two Par 5’s play over 550 yards with the first hole being the only one reachable in two. The four Par 3’s all play 190 or over with holes 13 and 16 being the only two that played under par last year.
Key Statistics:
- Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
- Driving Accuracy
- Greens in Regulation %
- Par 3 Efficiency: 175-200 Yards
- Par 4 Efficiency: 400-450 Yards
- Course History
The Field/ Odds:
We have a solid field for the Charles Schwab Invitational. The quality of the field is always a little questionable after a major championship. Out of this field of 120, we have five of the OWGR top 10 players.
Jordan Spieth (+1200), is one of the favorites this week and deservedly so. After missing the cut at the Masters Spieth has turned his game around. He won the RBC Heritage Classic and finished 2nd at the AT&T Byron Nelson before finishing T34 at the PGA Championship last week. Spieth won this event back in 2016 and finished runner up in 2015 and 2017. In his nine appearances at this event he has only finished outside the Top 10 twice.
Justin Thomas (+1200), is coming off a win at the PGA Championship last week. This was his first win on Tour this season. Despite only winning once this year, he has finished inside the top 10 in seven of his last ten tournaments. He has only played in this event twice, finishing 10th in 2020 and 40th in 2021.
Scottie Scheffler (+1200), is coming off his first missed cut of this season. With already four wins under his belt this season the odds clearly indicate that they expect him to bounce back. He has played in this event twice before finishing 55th in 2020 and missing the cut in 2021.
Collin Morikawa (+1800), returns to Colonial a place that he’s had moderate success. He was the runner up in 2020 and finished 14th in 2021. However, he’s not coming into this event in great form finishing outside the top 20 in his last three tournaments.
Previous winners in the field; Jason Kokrak, Daniel Berger, Kevin Na, Justin Rose, Kevin Kisner, Chris Kirk, Zach Johnson, and Rory Sabbatini
Notable Withdraws: Bryson Dechambeau (wrist)
To see the most up to date odds, you can click the following link.
To find out how everyone in the field has qualified, you can click the following link.
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
- 2021: Jason Kokrak (-14)
- Price: 60-1
- 2020: Daniel Berger (-15)
- Price: 70-1
- 2019: Kevin Na (-13)
- Price: 70-1
- 2018: Justin Rose (-20)
- Price: 20-1
- 2017: Kevin Kisner (-10)
- Price: 33-1
Picks (Outright):
- Jordan Spieth (+1200) – DraftKings
- Risk 0.67 to win 8.04 Units
When you think of Colonial Country Club it’s hard not to think of Jordan Spieth. I usually try to avoid playing the favorites but he’s a must play this week given his recent form and course history. I talked about him in “The Field/ Odds” section but I’ll expand on him a bit more here. While his putting hasn’t been great lately, since 2016 he ranks 3rd in the field in SG: Putting at Colonial. His approach game has been unbelievable as of late and if he can putt even moderately well I think he gets his second win in four events.
- Talor Gooch (+4100) – FanDuel
- Risk 0.20 to win 8.20 Units
Talor Gooch is one of the best approach players on the Tour ranking 20th in SG: Approach. He’s had an amazing year capturing his first win back at the RSM Classic earlier this season. As of late his games been pretty consistent making the cut in four of his last five events. In those four events, he never finished worse than T21. He’s played at Colonial three times before and is coming off his best finish of 14th last year. Gooch has struggled in terms of SG: Off the Tee but has gained strokes in that category in each of his last three events. His putting is also worry some but again has gained strokes in that category in four of his last five events.
- Brian Harman (+5000) – DraftKings
- Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units
In Harman’s last eight appearances at Colonial Country Club he has never finished worse than 31st. Over the course of those eight appearances he has finished inside the top 10 three times. He’s coming off a T34 at the PGA Championship and T9 at the Wells Fargo.. Harman’s ranks highly in terms of accuracy off the tee which is needed for this week. Where he struggled is his approach but has gained +1.24 and +1.35 strokes on approach in his last two events. In those events he’s gained strokes in nearly every category which bodes well for an event he’s done well at in the past.
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.03 Units
Picks (Top 20):
- Abraham Ancer (+165) – Caesars
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.65 Units
Abraham Ancer is another guy that looks to be rounding into form. Since missing the cut at the Masters he has made the cut in three consecutive events. At the PGA Championship last week he finished T9. Ancer has had success at Colonial finishing inside the top 20 in both of his last appearances (2020, 2021). He’s extremely accurate off the tee and is a solid putter. The issue for him has been his ball striking but gained 1.23 strokes on approach last week. I’m hoping he builds on that performance and uses his course knowledge to excel here again.
- Tony Finau (+170) – FanDuel
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.70 Units
Tony Finau has made the cut in his last six events. In his last three appearances at Colonial Country Club he finished; 2-23-20. His accuracy off the tee is a concern but given the length he won’t need to pull out driver as much. He ranks 27th or better in SG: Off the Tee, SG: Approach, and SG: Tee to Green. Finau’s putting has is also a bit of a worry but in his last two tournaments he has gained strokes. Last week at the PGA Championship, where he finished T30, he gained strokes in every major category. He’s been playing well and given his recent finishes here I like him to crack the top 20.
Total Risk on Top 20: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
- Emiliano Grillo (+200) – FanDuel
- Risk 1.00 to win 2.00 Units
Grillo has struggled this season but looks to be turning it around. After The Genesis Invitational where he finished T21, he missed five consecutive cuts. However, in his last two events he finished T33 and T46. In those tournaments he gained strokes in four of the five major categories which is encouraging. Grillo has also had some success at Colonial in this past finishing T40 or better in four of his last five appearances, most notably finishing 8th here last year. Given his recent performances and course history, I like him to continue to trend upward and finish inside the top 40 here.
Total Risk on Top 40: 1.00 Units
Total Risk on the Charles Schwab Challenge: 4.03 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
