Premiums, 5.24

Hard to anticipate a team scoring -6 points in the first quarter but here we are – that pretty much ruined the latter two NBA bets last night. Onto more zany shit today!

Well we certainly can’t pick the Mavericks later in this game, not at this point, but I’m still going to pick them early. We saw them easily win the 1st half at home in game 3, only to fall again and allow Golden State to overwhelm them in the final 2 quarters. Maybe it’s the most square bet I’ve had all postseason but I’m going to take the Warriors in the 3rd QTR until it loses. Draymond Green, after their game 3 win, went on his podcast and admitted that they’ll have to weather the storm early in game 4. Already on the defensive, the Warriors know that Dallas will come out as desperate and aggressive as ever as they face elimination. And one thing we know about the Warriors is that they LOVE to win their series at home – not so much on the road. I think Brunson gets his in this one and Luka distributes a little more, so I’ll go with Brunson’s points to get over the hook tonight.

These just aren’t good matchups for a struggling Washington team that’s no longer in the same class as LAD. Against Buehler on a chilly day in DC, this should be a blowout delivery from the visiting Dodgers. An alt-line feels prime.

The Phillies had their way behind Wheeler last night, but with Fried at the mound and Gibson in need of a better game, I like this contest to be slow and commanding by both pitchers.

Cleveland is the worst lineup against lefties and Plesac has been getting whacked by big power hits all season. Astros take this early.