A 2-0, +2u Monday extends me to +12.5u over the last 15 days! I’m rolling with 4 MLB plays for tonight looking to add to what’s been a great month. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Orioles F5 TT OVER 1.5(-110) @ Yankees–6:05 PM CT
The Orioles will be facing Yankees SP Jordan Montgomery for the 4th(!) time already not even 2 months into the season. To make matters worse(or better in our case), this will be Montgomery’s second straight start against the O’s, a spot I believe heavily favors the opposing offense. While Montgomery held down the Orioles in his first two starts, he allowed 7 hits and 3 runs in Camden Yards last week and now returns to a much tougher environment. We saw the Orioles rack up 5 runs off of Gerrit Cole last night(who was also making his second straight start against the O’s), and prior to that, they swung the bats well against Tampa Bay over the weekend. This is a cheap price considering the matchup, and I want to back the O’s offense early in this game facing a familiar arm who finds himself in a bad spot.
*MLB(1u): Angels -1.5(+130) vs Rangers–8:38 PM CT
Noah Syndergaard got absolutely shelled in Texas last week and didn’t make it out of the first inning, but I expect a bounce back start from him tonight. He’s had a great deal of success at home this year, and the Rangers have a sub-.600 OPS on the road vs right-handed pitching. While this is Syndergaard’s second straight start against Texas, Rangers SP Dane Dunning finds himself in the same spot, only he has the much tougher matchup. While Dunning has found success pitching at Globe Life Field, he held a 6.39 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, and 1.6 HR/9 away from home last year. The Angels are a top 5 offense and have fared nicely at home; aside from Shohei Ohtani, the core of this Angels order has touched up Dunning in the past. There is also a major bullpen discrepancy in this game as the Angels rank 4th in bullpen WHIP this year(and are coming off an off day) while the Rangers very well might have a bottom 5 bullpen in the league. I like the Angels to win this game comfortably and am inclined to risk a full unit given the generous price.
*MLB(1u): Brewers/Padres F5 UNDER 3.5(-125)–8:40 PM CT
Blake Snell was roughed up in his season debut last week in Philadelphia, but he returns home to Petco Park tonight in a role he excelled in last season. At home last year, Snell held a 2.50 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and struck out 13 batters per 9 innings. He’ll face a Milwaukee offense that was below average against left-handed pitching last year and holds just a .621 OPS against lefties away from home this year. With that said, I believe Brewers SP Corbin Burnes is the best pitcher in baseball. The 2021 NL Cy Young winner held a sub-2.00 ERA away from home last year and gets a favorable matchup tonight against a Padres offense that ranks just 25th in OPS vs righties this season. We’re getting a better price on the full game Under, but I don’t want to trust either bullpen given each received quite a bit of usage in last night’s game. I’m playing this because of the starting pitching matchup, so I’ll isolate the F5 and lay a bit of a premium.
*MLB(0.69u): Red Sox F5 ML(+145) @ White Sox–7:10 PM CT
White Sox SP Dylan Cease has great swing-and-miss stuff, but he is also prone to getting roughed up by good offenses. The Yankees recently tallied 6 runs off of Cease in just 4 innings despite Cease striking out 11 Yankees bats. The Red Sox struggled mightily to start the year, but over their last last 12 games, they are averaging just over 6.5 runs/game. They figured out their right-handed pitching woes in this recent home stand, and I like them to keep it rolling against an arm in Cease who has struggled in the past allowing the deep ball. Red Sox SP Nick Pivetta is in about as good of current form as any pitcher in the league. He threw a 2-hit complete game against the Astros in his last start and blanked the White Sox across 6 innings earlier this month. Across his last 22 innings, Pivetta has allowed just 2 ER’s. The White Sox have struggled mightily against right-handed pitching this season(.581 OPS vs righties at home), and I’m not going to expect this to be the spot they turn things around. Considering Boston’s current form, this is an extremely favorable price; I think this matchup swings more in their favor than this line would imply. I don’t want any part of either bullpen, so I’ll isolate the F5 and sprinkle on the Sox to hopefully win us a full unit.
