Los Angeles Dodgers (-220) @ Washington Nationals (+175) 7:05 PM ET
The Dodgers come into this game 28-13 on the year, and 13-8 on the road. The Nationals are 14-29 on the year, and 5-16 at home. That doesn’t tell the whole story though, even though it does paint a very chalky picture.
Walker Buehler gets the ball for the Dodgers tonight and has been on fire on the road this year. In 21 innings on the road he has given up a total of 3 runs for a 1.29 ERA. Hitters are batting .149 against him with a weighted on base average (wOBA) of .183. He also owns a .208 batting average against on balls put in play (BABIP), a 1.82 fielder independent pitching (FIP) mark, and a 2.94 expected fielder independent pitching (xFIP) mark. These are elite advanced stats going against a very sub-par Nationals lineup.
On the other side of the diamond taking the mound we have Josiah Gray. A 24 year old right hander who has struggled, particularly at home. In 21 innings pitched at home he’s given up 15 runs for a 6.43 ERA. Hitters are batting .289 against hime with a .421 wOBA. Balls in play are having success to a .367 BABIP, with a 5.58 FIP, and 3.52 xFIP. He could be in store for some positive regression at some point, but I don’t see it happening against a loaded Dodgers lineup. I think Gray struggles just as much as Adon did yesterday when he gave up 6 runs in 4.2 innings.
Hard to see the Dodgers not being up at least 2-0 after 5 innings with what should be a strong outing for Buehler.
Kansas City Royals (+175) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-210) 9:40 PM ET
The Royals come into tonight’s game 14-27 on the year, 6-12 on the road, and 3-5 against the NL. The Arizona Diamondbacks are 22-22 on the year, 11-11 at home, and 2-1 against the AL.
Jonathan Heasley gets the ball for the Royals. He has a respectable 2.70 ERA in 3.1 innings of work on the road. The concerning part for him is the advanced stats and metrics. Hitters are batting .228 with a .352 wOBA, and a .308 BABIP. He also has had some good luck in the overall numbers as he is carrying a 6.11 FIP, and 7.35 xFIP. What this tells me is he had some good fielding help his last time out. I’m not sure he gets that here with as much as the Royals have struggled all around on the road. I look for some negative regression here. The question becomes can the D-Backs take advantage of it.
Zac Gallen, much like Walker Buehler on the road, has been nothing short of spectacular. He has thrown 24 innings and given up 2 runs to a tune of a 0.75 ERA. Hitters are only batting .133 with a .184 wOBA. The advanced stats are even more impressive as balls in play against him are only going for a .185 BABIP to go with a 2.06 FIP, and 2.96 xFIP. I don’t see any regression coming here against a Royals offense that lacks big power. Hard to manufacture runs when the balls you put in play are going for a hit less than 20% of the time.
For these reasons I see value in parlaying the F5 run lines. I will also have a play on a money line parlay for both sides as there’s some plus money value there as well.
1U: Dodgers -1 -115 F5 / D-Backs -0.5 -135 F5 parlay +225
1U: Dodgers -220 / D-Backs -210 parlay +114
