Tampa Bay completed the sweep last night knocking the Florida Panthers out of the playoffs. The Lightning advance to the Eastern Conference Finals for the third consecutive year and will take on the winner of the Hurricanes/ Rangers. Out West, the Avalanche go up 3-1 in their series with St. Louis and have an opportunity to close them out at home in Game 5.
Tonight we have Game 4 between Carolina and New York with the Rangers looking to even up the series on home ice. The Hurricanes have been unbeatable on home ice this post season but have struggled on the road. In Game 3, we saw Igor Shesterkin come up big for the Rangers propelling them to a win.
In the Battle of Alberta, the Oilers have rattled off two wins in a row to take a 2-1 series lead over the Flames. Connor McDavid has been absolutely unbelievable this post season recording 23 points. The Flames have been dominated in Games 2 & 3 in terms of expected goals so we’ll see how they rebound tonight. If they do want to have a chance in this series they’ll need to try and find a way to slow McDavid down, which I’m not sure is possible given his recent play.
Carolina Hurricanes @ New York Rangers (CAR 2 – 1)
The Rangers took Game 3 at home behind an outstanding performance from Igor Shesterkin. He stopped 43 of 44 Shots Against and finished the game with an impressive +1.80 GSAx. In every game of this series he’s been great which has allowed them to stay in this matchup against Carolina. Offensively and defensively the Hurricanes are a better team with the goaltending matchup going to New York. By no means is this a knock against Antti Raanta who’s also had a positive GSAx in every game of this series but Shesterkin is going to be the Vezina trophy winner for a reason.
As I previously mentioned, the Hurricanes have yet to win a game on the road in the playoffs. For whatever reason, they can’t seem to get over that mental hurdle. In the regular season they went 25-16-4 on the road.
Just like the Hurricanes, the Rangers play their best hockey at home. During the regular season they went 31-10-5. If they want to even up the series tonight they’ll need that same offensive production they received in Game 3.
This is a tough game to pick as you can look at it through a variety of angles. You either think the Rangers dominance will continue on home ice with Carolina’s road struggles continuing as well. Or you think Carolina can finally win won on the road against an inferior opponent. Personally I think Carolina wins this game with their offense finally breaking through. Igor has been amazing ever since he was pulled in round 1 but this Carolina team has recorded over 40 shots in Game 3 which was nearly double what they produced in Games 1 and 2. I believe we see Carolina does the same thing tonight but are able to get a few more past Shesterkin. In terms of the total, this series has gone Under in every game so it’s a stay away from me but the over 5.5 at +120 is tempting…
PICK: CAROLINA HURRICANES (-105) – PointsBet
Calgary Flames @ Edmonton Oilers (EDM 2- 1)
So far the Battle of Alberta has been all about goals. In two of the first three games of this series, they’ve combined for over 8 goals. We knew coming into this series that both teams possess high power offenses but I’m not sure we expected to this many. With all of the goals scored we turn to the goaltending. Mike Smith struggled in Game 1 for Edmonton but has rebounded nicely finishing with a positive GSAx in Games 2 and 3. Jacob Markstrom, who is a Vezina finalist by the way, hasn’t played up to that level. In the first three games he only finished with a positive GSAx in one of them (Game 2).
The Oilers were in full control of Game 3 and outplayed the Flames in every area of the ice. In the first period alone Edmonton outshot the Flames 21-7. They were unable to get anything by Markstrom but took control of the game in the 2nd period scoring four. Edmonton went on to concede one goal in the third but would end up winning that game 4-1.
We now turn to Game 4 where the Flames need to steal one on the road. If Calgary wants to have a chance in this series they’ll need their top line to lead the charge. So far in the playoffs their top line has 34 points combined, headlined by Gaudreau’s 13. We’ll also see how Markstrom rebounds after getting pulled for the last period in Game 3. He’s had an up and down post season so far but we’ll need to solidify his number one spot in net as they may turn to Vladar in Game 5.
Going into this series I though Calgary would win and so far that hasn’t been the case. However, at plus money I like the Flames in Game 4. They haven’t played their best hockey by any means in this series and are only one game away from evening up this series. Also if the Flames are going to win this one I think they have to match Edmonton’s offensive production so I like this game to go over the total as well.
PICK: CALGARY FLAMES (+100) -BetMGM
PICK: CALGARY/ EDMONTON OVER 6.5 (-103) – Barstool
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
