While I saw a dip yesterday, I still remain +12.71u over the last 17 days. I’m rolling with 3 MLB plays tonight looking to add to what’s been a great month. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Royals F5 TT OVER 1.5(-115) @ Twins–6:40 PM CT
Twins SP Devin Smeltzer will be making his second straight start against the Royals, a spot I believe favors the opposing offense greatly. While Smeltzer did allow only 1 run in 5.1 IP against these Royals last week, he failed to strikeout a single Kansas City bat in that outing. With a fastball that seldom reaches 90 mph, Smeltzer leaves himself little room for error, which explains why he has failed to establish himself at the big league level. The Royals aren’t a good offense by any means, but they did score 11 runs in their 2 game set in Arizona earlier this week and should be fresh coming off an off day. I think the full game TT should come through as well, but I want to isolate the matchup I like most and trust the Royals offense to get some quick revenge on a vulnerable Smeltzer tonight.
*MLB(1u): Cardinals ML(-120) vs Brewers–6:45 PM CT
While these teams match up very evenly, the stars seemed to be aligned for the Cardinals to take care of business tonight. Cardinals SP Adam Wainwright has been nails at home throughout the entirety of his career, and that has carried over into 2022. The Brewers have been mediocre against right-handed pitching on the road this year and mustered together only 8 runs in their 3 game set in San Diego earlier this week. While they faced some high-caliber arms in that series, things won’t get any easier for them facing Wainwright tonight. Brewers SP Eric Lauer has looked lights out in 2022(2.16 ERA, 0.94 WHIP), but this is a nightmarish matchup for the young lefty. The Cardinals lead the league in OPS vs left-handed pitching, and that OPS skyrockets to .908 at Busch Stadium. While Lauer is a swing-and-miss arm, the Cardinals have the 4th lowest K% against left-handed pitching this year. I also think this particular situation heavily favors the Cardinals bullpen, who had yesterday off. In contrast, the Brewers have needed Devin Williams to throw each of the past 3 days and in general dug deep into their ‘pen in that San Diego series. Closer Josh Hader is away from the team for personal reasons, and I have seen no indication he’ll rejoin the team tonight. I want to back St Louis when Wainwright is pitching at home or when they’re facing a lefty arm; we happen to be getting both tonight. Throw in the fact the Brewers will be without Hunter Renfroe, Willy Adames, Devin Williams, and Josh Hader(as of now), and I think all signs point towards St Louis starting this 4 game set off with a bang.
*MLB(1u): Red Sox/White Sox OVER 9(-120)–7:10 PM CT
White Sox SP Dallas Keuchel is absolutely atrocious. With an ERA at 6.60, a WHIP at 2.00, a H/9 at 12.6, and a K/9 at 4.8, you cannot convince me Keuchel deserves to be getting starts at the major league level. The Red Sox offense came back down to earth last night, but a matchup against Keuchel is incomparable to a bout with Lucas Giolito. Prior to last night, the Sox were one of the hottest offenses in the league; I don’t think one off night against an All Star caliber arm is enough to keep me off of them tonight. In addition, the White Sox dug deep into their bullpen to close out last night’s game. Liam Hendricks will almost certainly be unavailable tonight, which spells trouble for a ‘pen that ranks 23rd in bullpen WHIP and has seen little effectiveness from their middle relievers. With all that said, I think we’re going to see Red Sox SP Michael Wacha regress in a major way in tonight’s start. While Wacha holds a 1.76 ERA, a FIP of 4.32 is much more reflective of the quality of pitcher he is. Away from Tropicana Field last year, Wacha held a 5.61 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and allowed 1.8 HR/9. The White Sox have failed to figure out right-handed pitching this year, but given their effectiveness in that role last season, I still trust them facing an arm I think is due for a blowup start. While the Red Sox bullpen has been more effective as of late, they are certainly capable of blowing any lead you give them. I believe getting this total below 10 is an absolute bargain. While weather is a concern tonight, I want action on this Over if this game is played in its entirety.
