Still +11.36u over the last 18 days, I’m rolling with a pair of plays tonight looking to start the weekend off strong! To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group.
*MLB(1u): Red Sox TT OVER 5.5(+100) vs Orioles–6:10 PM CT
It’s not too hard to see why the Red Sox are an easy team to back at the moment. After a sluggish start, this team has scored 7.5 runs/game over their last 15 games. They put up 16 last night against the White Sox and also put up 16 on Tuesday in Chicago. Tonight, they’ll return back home to hitter-friendly Fenway Park and will be greeted by a favorable 16 mph wind blowing out to LCF. Orioles SP Kyle Bradish has allowed at least 1 HR in each of his 5 starts this year and holds a poor 5.05 FIP. While the righty was effective in his start against Boston earlier this year, he only managed to strike out 2 Red Sox batters in 6 innings. The lineup he’ll face tonight is almost incomparable to the lineup he faced earlier this season. While the Orioles bullpen has been above average this year, I don’t think that’s sustainable. In any case, the Red Sox are a clear “bet on” team at the moment, and I’m not sure even the best pitching staff in the league could hold this lineup down in their current form. Rather than trust Red Sox SP Garrett Whitlock in a role he’s yet to settle into or a shaky Red Sox pen, I’m going to isolate the Red Sox offense and expect their success to continue tonight.
*MLB(1u): Brewers F5 -0.5(-110) @ Cardinals–6:45 PM CT
Cardinals SP Dakota Hudson might hold a 3.60 ERA, but that is extremely misleading. Hudson holds a shaky 1.35 WHIP, has a high hard contact rate above 35%, and is striking out less than 5 batters per 9 innings. His FIP near 5.00 is much more reflective of the quality of pitcher he is. The Brewers managed to rack up 10 hits against Adam Wainwright last night, and I expect them to carry over that success into tonight against a very attackable arm. While I like the way the Cardinals stack up against left-handed pitching, their effectiveness plummets against righties. Brewers SP Brandon Woodruff has held a WHIP below 1.00 each of the past 2 seasons and has allowed just 2 ER over his past 2 starts. Woodruff also strikes out well over a batter per inning and has good career numbers against the meat of this Cardinals lineup. I think the SP disparity is far more sizable than this line would indicate. Rather than lay a huge price, I’ll take the Brewers on the F5 run-line.
