Coming off a 1-1 split last night, I still sit at +13.26u over the last 23 days. I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight looking to start the new month off strong. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Athletics TT UNDER 2.5(-110) vs Astros–2:37 PM CT
The Athletics are a putrid offense that doesn’t have much hope of flipping the script given the lack of talent on their roster. On the year, the A’s rank just 27th in runs and dead last in OPS vs right-handed pitching. They will be completely overmatched today facing Justin Verlander of the Astros. Verlander holds a brilliant 2.03 ERA and 0.83 WHIP, and the only knock on him is that he gives up a few more home runs than you’d like. Fortunately, the A’s rank second-to-last in slugging% this season. I also trust an Astros ‘pen in the later innings that ranks 1st in bullpen ERA this year and 3rd in bullpen WHIP. I expect Verlander to go pretty deep in this game and for the A’s to have no answers for this Houston pitching staff.
*MLB(1u): Braves TT OVER 4.5(-130) @ Diamondbacks–2:40 PM CT
The Braves have dropped each of the first 2 games of this series, but they have failed to lose 3 straight games this season. In yesterday’s loss, the offense still put up 14 hits and 7 runs, and they’ll get a very favorable matchup today. DBacks SP Madison Bumgarner is well past his prime; while a 3.35 ERA might look impressive, a 5.27 FIP is a strong indicator that Bumgarner is due to fall flat on his face. This year, Bumgarner is striking out less than 6 batters per 9 innings, giving up 1.7 HR/9, and allowing a hard-hit rate above 30%. The Braves hold a .792 OPS vs lefties on the road this year and should have an opportunity to creep above .800 after today. In addition, I feel comfortable going against a D-Backs bullpen that ranks 24th in bullpen WHIP and has seen their closer Mark Melancon throw each of the past 2 days. Bumgarner’s early season success is not sustainable, so getting a standard TT at a reasonable price when we know the Braves will have 27 outs to work with is very generous.
*MLB(1u): Giants/Phillies F5 UNDER 4(-110)–5:05 PM CT
This is a grade A pitching matchup with Aaron Nola taking the hill opposite of Carlos Rodon. Nola’s 0.94 WHIP is incredibly impressive, and as has become custom, Nola pitches better in his home ballpark. He’s also sustained a very high strikeout rate that should play well against a Giants lineup that is still without Brandon Belt, LaMonte Wade, and Austin Slater. Carlos Rodon has had a shaky last few starts, but I don’t think that amounts to much in the long term. Coming off a career best season, all this lefty has done is strike out 11.5 batters per 9 innings, allow just 0.54 HR/9, and hold a FIP at 2.62. While the Phillies have hit lefties well on the road, that has yet to translate to their home ballpark. Getting a F5 total with this good of a pitching matchup is generous, especially when neither offense is in great current form. F5 Under is the play.
