The Rangers took Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals by a score of 6-2 behind an incredible performance from Igor Shesterkin. The Bolts had 4.45 xGoals compared to New York’s 2.48. However, as I mentioned in my article yesterday the game came down to goaltending. Vasilevskiy had his worst performance of the playoffs with a -3.52 GSAx compared to Igor’s +2.45 GSAx.
We now move onto Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals. Pavel Francouz takes over the netminder duties for Colorado tonight. Darcy Kuemper was injured in Game 1 and his timetable for return is unknown. Francouz does have some playoff experience this post season. As you recall, Kuemper was injured in Game 3 of the first round and Francouz finished that game and started Game 4. During that span he had a .902 SV% and a 2.97 GAA.
Edmonton Oilers @ Colorado Avalanche (Series: COL 1-0)
The Avalanche and Oilers combined for 14 goals in the first game of the series. Thirteen different skaters recorded a goal with Colorado’s J.T. Compher being the only player to tally multiple goals. Twenty-five players also registered at least one point with McDavid and Makar finishing with a game high three points a piece.
In Game 1 the total closed at 7.0 and now we see it moved to a playoff high of 7.5. Edmonton and Colorado lead the post season in terms of total goals and goals for per game. The over is 4-0 for Edmonton on the road and 4-1 in Colorado’s last five overall. So while this movement is justified, it’s still crazy to see a post season game have this high of a total. Traditionally we’ve seen lower totals in the playoffs but that trend has certainly been reversed this year. Over the course of the last three NHL season’s there have been 12 games with a total of 7.5 or higher, the Under is 11-1!
In terms of the side’s, Colorado was the home favorite with -195 odds in the first game. However, in Game 2 the line has shifted to -175. The Avalanche opened Game 2 around those same odds in Game 1 but even with most of the wagers and money coming in on them, that line has dropped. The Oilers have only lost back to back games once this post season and that was back in their first series against Los Angeles. Colorado won back to back games at home during their first series with Nashville but split the first two games against St. Louis in the second round.
Mike Smith will get the start for the Oilers tonight after a getting pulled in the first game of the series. He finished that game with a -3.49 GSAx, stopping 19 of 25 shots against. As I previously mentioned, Pavel Francouz will get the start for the Avalanche. Francouz had never played against the Oilers prior to making a relief appearance in Game 1. He had a -0.24 GSAx in that game 5.62 GAA and .857 SV%. Pavel Francouz also struggled in his relief appearance in the first round but played better when he started in the next game. We’ll see if he continues that trend here with him facing a much more offensively gifted team.
PICK: [1U] EDMONTON OILERS TEAM TOTAL OVER 3.5 INCL OT (+115) – DRAFTKINGS
Led by Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, the Oilers are averaging the second most goals per game in the playoffs with 4.46. In Game 1 of this series they had 4.37 expected goals and managed to record 6 against Kuemper. Now, in Game 2, they face Pavel Francouz who has only started on game in this post season. In that game he allowed 3 goals to Nashville who during the regular season ranked 12th in GF/GP compared to Edmonton who ranked 7th. Also, after every loss in the post season the Oilers have scored four or more goals the next game and I see that trend continuing here.
PLAYER PROP: [0.5U] NAZEM KADRI OVER 3.5 SHOTS ON GOAL (-104) – FANDUEL
Over the course of the regular season, Nazem Kadri averages 3.5 Shots on Goal overall but 3.9 at home. He has gone over this total in 3 of his last 5 games at home which includes last game when he recorded 9 shots on 11 attempts. Kadri played against the Oilers twice during the regular season and went 1/2.
PLAYER PROP: [0.5U] CONNOR MCDAVID OVER 1.5 POINTS (-135) – DRAFTKINGS
From the start of the post season, Connor McDavid has put on an absolute show averaging 2.23 points per game. He leads the NHL in playoff points with 29. His line mate Leon Draisaitl is right behind him with 28. We’ve seen some of McDavid’s best performances come after a loss. During the playoffs, the Oilers have only lost three games. After each one of those games, McDavid has recorded over 1.5 points. The Avalanche showed no sign of being able to slow him down in Game 1 and with a bit of extra motivation, I think we see him put on a show again tonight.
PLAYER PROP: [0.5U] LEON DRAISAITL OVER 1.5 POINTS (+110) – DRAFTKINGS
I don’t trust Draisaitl as much as McDavid but Draisaitl over 1.5 is also worth a look. He’s their main shooter on their powerplay and has recorded over 1.5 points in their last five games. Looking a larger same size of data, he has gone over this number in eight of his last ten games. Draisaitl is also averaging 2.15 points per game this post season.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
