Happy Tuesday everyone! It’s been a while since I published an MLB post here. May was extremely busy for me and since I write most of these posts at night (That full time day job gets in the way) there just hasn’t been much time. Lucky for you, the first two weeks of May were the worst stretch of baseball betting I have ever been through. But now, We’ve righted the ship and are back on track looking forward to a profitable June. Let’s get to today’s Free Play.
Today I am looking to Baltimore for the match-up between the Cubs and Orioles. There is potential storms on the horizon this evening, and moving those storms along will be some serious breezes. The wind will be blowing out to Left Center at 10-15 mph with gusts much higher. So what do those winds mean for our game this evening?
Kyle Bradish will be on the mound for the Orioles tonight. He comes in sporting a 6.82 ERA, but is due for some serious positive regression. His LOB% is below league average at 65.4% and should come up. The BABIP against him is currently .368 while league average sits right around .300. Bradish is also giving up a HR on 24.2% of fly balls which is a ridiculously high number. Put those together and his xFIP is actually at 3.72. The problem I have with Bradish for tonight is he is giving up 34.7% Fly Balls and 22.1% Line Drives. The hard contact rate is 44.2% and the barrel rate is 11.6%. Add those up and I think his issue of allowing Home Runs continues. The Cubs have put up 5.3 runs per game over the last week and are in the middle of the pack in OPS and Home Runs and should move up a bit this evening.
Keegan Thompson is the starter for the Cubs and has posted an incredible 6-0 with a 1.99 ERA to start the season. He is due to regress in the negative direction with a 3.95 xFIP. While his K-Rate is lower than Bradish it’s the other things he does better that will lead to his continued success tonight in Baltimore. His ground ball rate is 52.5% and his FB% is 34.2% which will play well with the winds blowing out. He is also doing a great job of limiting hard contact. The Orioles are the 4th most strikeout prone team in MLB, and hold only a .669 OPS vs right handed pitching.
There could be some fireworks in this one once we get to the bullpens especially
I’m on the Cubs tonight two ways. F5 -110 1 Unit, ML -110 1 Unit
Also Lean over 8.5
